Erdogan is using the war unscrupulously for his own interests

The war in Ukraine shows once again that Turkey is a difficult but also an indispensable partner for the West. As ruler of the Bosphorus, Turkey controls access to the Black Sea. After the war began, President Erdogan, citing the Montreux Convention, prohibited the naval ships of the warring parties from passing through. At the same time, he used his contacts in Kyiv and Moscow to get involved as a mediator. Ankara now also plays an important role in the struggle to lift the Russian naval blockade.

The visit of Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Ankara on Wednesday showed how far the road to an agreement still is. Although Moscow is obviously responsible for the blockade of Ukrainian ports, Lavrov has blamed the Ukrainians for not being able to export their grain. But despite the lack of progress, it is clear that opening the ports, clearing sea mines off the coasts and escorting cargo ships in the Black Sea is only possible with Turkey.

Turkey is the only NATO state that has both the naval forces needed to secure Ukrainian ports and the right to keep a larger fleet in the Black Sea for longer. Because according to the Montreux Convention of 1936, non-neighbouring countries like the USA are only allowed to send smaller naval units there temporarily. Because of its geographic location, Turkey is – once again – a key position for NATO.

Swearing about Erdogan doesn’t help

Many NATO countries are likely to curse that they are once again dependent on Erdogan, as was the case in the Syrian conflict and in the refugee crisis. However, they don’t have a choice. And the Turkish President knows that, and accordingly does not hesitate to use this special position for his own interests. This is particularly evident in the question of Sweden and Finland joining NATO, which Erdogan has been blocking for weeks in order to extort concessions from the partners.

He justified his veto by saying that Stockholm supports the hated PKK guerrillas and their Syrian sister organization. While many on the left in Sweden do have sympathy for the Kurdish cause, this is of marginal importance. Much more important is the arms aid that the United States has been giving to the Syrian Kurds in the fight against the jihadist militia Islamic State for years, despite all the protests from its NATO partner Turkey.

What is outrageous is not that Erdogan uses his position for his own interests, but the unscrupulousness with which he proceeds.

Erdogan is likely to press for concessions here. He is obviously hoping to use his current position to get the green light from Moscow and Washington for a new offensive against the Syrian Kurds after the 2016, 2017 and 2019 operations. For weeks, Erdogan has been beating the war drum for another military intervention east of the Euphrates to force the Kurdish militias out of the border area.

Erdogan has a lot of balls in the air

It is uncertain whether the calculation will actually work. The Russians will pay dearly if the naval blockade is lifted. They will only agree to a Turkish offensive in Syria if Ankara meets them on other points. When the Scandinavians join NATO, Erdogan will certainly receive concessions from the NATO partners, but he will also forfeit the goodwill he has secured as a mediator in Ukraine.

Of course, he shouldn’t care. In recent years he has never shied away from starting conflicts, even with the closest trading partners, if he felt that this would bring him any advantages. However, this does not prevent him from repeatedly offering himself as a partner – for example in controlling the EU’s external borders. It is less outrageous that Erdogan uses his position for his own interests than the unscrupulousness with which he proceeds. In the end, the NATO partners still have no choice but to play Erdogan’s poker game.