Erdogan threatens invasion
Putin’s weakness is showing in Syria
By Marc Dimpfel
December 2nd, 2022, 7:10 p.m
Turkey openly threatens a ground offensive in northern Syria. In response, Russia is strengthening its troops in the border area. Putin wants to set an example. But he can hardly stand up to Erdogan’s new strength.
The Russian troops in the Syrian border area with Turkey are on the move. Residents of the Syrian town of Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo, reported the arrival of Russian soldiers on Wednesday. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Russia was also strengthening its troops at a nearby air base and near the border town of Kobane. This is apparently a reaction by the Kremlin to the actions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
He has had hundreds of targets in northern Syria and northern Iraq shot at for around two weeks. According to their own statements, these are positions of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG and the Kurdish workers’ party PKK, which is banned in Turkey. Ankara justifies the attacks with the fight against “terrorists” who are responsible for the attack in Istanbul in mid-November. YPG and PKK deny any involvement in the assassination. Turkey has repeatedly threatened a ground offensive on Syrian territory. At the end of November, Erdogan said his country would “take tough action against terrorists from the country at a convenient time for us”.
It would be Turkey’s fourth military intervention in Syria since 2016. Most recently, Erdogan sent soldiers to the Kurdish-controlled border region in 2019 after then-US President Donald Trump ordered his troops to withdraw. Today the momentum is again on Erdogan’s side. The war in Ukraine has changed the regional balance of power in his favor.
“Russia was always in a position of strength in Syria. But Turkey now has the upper hand,” says Hamidreza Azizi from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. The Ukraine war devours large parts of the Russian capacities. “Turkey no longer believes that Russia is protecting its interests in Syria. At the same time, Moscow is no longer able to dissuade Ankara from carrying out a military operation on the ground,” says Middle East expert ntv.de.
Moscow is still holding out
Nevertheless, for a ground offensive, Erdogan would need the green light from Moscow, which controls large parts of Syrian airspace and is the most important ally of the ruler Bashar al-Assad. “We hope that our arguments will be heard in Ankara and that other ways of solving the problem will be found,” said Russian negotiator Alexander Lavrentiev.
With the most recent troop transfers, Russia apparently wants to emphasize its position. Experts see this as an attempt to prevent or at least delay a Turkish invasion. “Russia wants to create facts on the ground and make itself known,” said Kamal Sido from the Society for Threatened Peoples in an interview with ntv.de.
For Putin, Syria is becoming more and more of a tightrope act. Apparently he feels compelled to explain to Erdogan the seriousness of the situation. At the same time, the Kremlin boss is also dependent on him. As the West imposes sanctions on Russia, trade between Moscow and Ankara is thriving. Both countries concluded a joint energy deal. As a NATO member, Turkey also acts as a bridge between Russia and the West and was even able to act as a mediator in disputes over grain deliveries.
Erdogan has problems in his own country
In his political isolation, Putin has a great interest in maintaining relations with Erdogan. However, he is under domestic pressure. Record inflation is dwindling his popularity in the country. Despite the gagged opposition, next year’s elections could be dangerous for him. Erdogan is trying to turn things around with tried and tested means: military saber-rattling and anti-Kurdish propaganda.
Thanks to his strengthened position in foreign policy, Erdogan can push ahead with a long-cherished goal: conquering a 30-kilometer strip in the Syrian border area. With this he wants to keep the de facto autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria at bay. Erdogan also plans to settle Syrian refugees who are currently in Turkey there. At least from the air, Russia has so far allowed him to do so. “Putin has to make concessions, and he’s doing it on the backs of the weakest, the Kurds and other minorities,” says Sido.
The fact that Russia is now moving troops into the region can also be attributed to its ally Assad. It owes its power to the protective military hand of the Kremlin. “Syrian soldiers were also killed in the Turkish attacks. The Assad government accuses the Russians of not acting decisively enough,” says Sido. The fact that Erdogan recently signaled his willingness to meet with Assad is seen as an attempt at a compromise. Both have actually been worst enemies since the outbreak of the civil war in Syria. Should Erdogan and Assad map out a possible invasion together, that would be the most advantageous solution for the Kremlin. According to Sido, this has long been the subject of negotiations in the background.
“Washington is already preparing”
However, the USA, which supports the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces, also has a say in Syria. A new Turkish operation is firmly rejected, said US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in an interview with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar. However, the Ukraine war is also a priority for the USA. Erdogan uses his veto when Finland and Sweden join NATO as a welcome means of exerting pressure.
In addition, the United States is concerned about a resurgence of the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS). Thousands of IS fighters are in prison in the Kurdish-controlled areas and could be released if the YPG is further pushed back. In the end, however, the US would have little to oppose against NATO ally Turkey, says Azizi. “Washington is already preparing for a Turkish ground offensive”.
It therefore stands to reason that both Washington and Moscow could agree to a limited Turkish operation. That would require additional negotiations with the Kurds. “They would have to withdraw their troops at least 30 kilometers from the Turkish border,” says Azizi. The recent Russian troop shift is also a signal to Ankara to comply with a limit. “Russia wants to make sure that Turkey does not overstep a certain territory in the event of a ground offensive.”
The US expert Howard Eissenstat assesses the situation in a similar way: “Under the current circumstances, Russia or the USA may be able to set limits to Turkish action, but they cannot prevent it entirely,” says the historian from St. Lawrence University in the US state New York for the magazine “Politico”. That alone is evidence of a new strength that Turkey has on the geopolitical stage and that Russia – at least in Syria – lacks.