The Turkish president has been blocking Sweden and Finland from joining NATO for months. In the Aegean he rattles his saber. He is waging war against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Whoever has such allies no longer needs opponents.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks at a press conference during the NATO summit in Madrid in late June 2022.
Anyone who asks NATO diplomats about Turkey always hears the same words: Yes, the country is a difficult ally. But also one that is strategically and geopolitically too important to be able to do without: a bridgehead in the Asian region. A size in the region. The second largest military power in the alliance after the USA.
With the Ukraine war, the importance of Turkey has grown again. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can claim to have brokered a grain deal with Russia. He sold combat drones to the Ukrainians. His good relationship with Vladimir Putin puts him in pole position for future peace talks.
Putin and Erdogan are brothers in spirit
However, it is precisely this special path that causes NATO to have difficulties in explaining itself. At their summit in Madrid, the member states agreed to define Russia as the main opponent. It is not for nothing that the alliance should also be about defending values. However, the Sultan in Ankara only supports this consensus on paper. Putin and Erdogan are brothers in spirit, united in their hatred of liberal modernity.
Turkey’s failure to join EU and G-7 sanctions designed to weaken Russia’s economy and boost the cost of the war is problematic enough. However, Erdogan goes much further with his statement that he wants to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The autocrat club plans nothing less than to overthrow the Western-dominated order.
Meanwhile, Erdogan stirs up discord within the alliance wherever he can. For months he has blocked the admission of Finland and Sweden, although that would be a huge win for the North Atlantic Pact. Both countries are established democracies with modern armies. No wonder NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg promised them turbocharged accession in the spring.
However, because elections are taking place in Turkey in six months and because it is always well received at home to lash out against the United States, Europe and the Kurds, Erdogan has seen his right to veto NATO expansion as an opportunity to retain power. The Swedes and Finns can therefore try as hard as they can to take action against suspected “Kurdish terrorists”. It is to be expected that Erdogan will let her struggle for quite a while.
NATO is powerless against Erdogan’s airs and graces
The recent terrorist attack in Istanbul has given the Turkish army an excuse to bomb Kurdish positions in northern Syria and Iraq. The background of the fact is still completely unclear. The PKK and its Syrian affiliate have denied any responsibility. For NATO it is particularly shameful that the airstrikes are said to have hit Kobane of all places – the border town that once fought back the Islamic State.
The Turkish President’s list of foreign policy aggressions is long. His saber-rattling with Athens also goes beyond the usual feuds in the Aegean. Erdogan recently mused aloud about occupying Greek islands, in other words he openly threatened war with another NATO country. Whoever has such allies no longer needs opponents.
In summary, Turkey is much more than just “difficult” under its strong man. It has become an enormous burden for the alliance, and this at a time when NATO would have to pool all its internal forces to stand up to Putin. There is no practical way out of the misery: Ankara could only leave the alliance voluntarily. Anyone who wants to discipline the sultan, for example with trade sanctions, cannot do so at NATO level. The only thing left for the allies there is to continue talking to Erdogan with angelic tongues.
The Brussels correspondent Daniel Steinvorth Twitter follow.