Escalation China – USA – What is happening in Taiwan? Answers to the most pressing questions – News
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Tensions around Taiwan are heating up. The USA warn of an escalation – China threatens countermeasures. What is the argument all about?
Why is the dispute one of the most dangerous trouble spots in the world? A military conflict over Taiwan would have a massive impact on the global economy. The nuclear powers China and the USA would also face each other. Experts assume that a war over Taiwan would have greater repercussions than Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
Why does Pelosi’s visit anger China?
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With her visit to the island republic of Taiwan, the speaker of the US House of Representatives is provoking the Chinese government. «Beijing cannot stop at harsh words in the face of Pelosi’s visit. After all, the Xi regime has been stoking nationalism for years and portraying Taiwan’s integration into the People’s Republic as indispensable,” says diplomatic correspondent Fredy Gsteiger. “Accordingly, the Chinese leadership is under pressure and has to do something that its own population doesn’t see as a too tepid reaction.”
What drives Pelosi? Next year she will be 83 years old. She may be stepping down from Congress soon, and seems concerned about her political legacy as well. Because morally, Nancy Pelosi’s visit can be justified. She has been fighting for democracy and human rights as well as against autocrats for decades. Above all, she believes that the US must not be intimidated by possible threats from the leadership in Beijing.
What does the Ukraine war have to do with it? Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, concerns are growing around the world that China could similarly attempt to conquer the democratic island. The United States has long been committed to Taiwan’s defense capability, which has so far mostly meant arms deliveries.
Legend:
Pelosi’s motivations for visiting Taiwan may be related to her political heritage and struggle for democracy. China sees the interference as an affront.
Reuters/Thomas Peter
Why is Taiwan politically so important to China? The communist claim to power goes back to the founding history of the People’s Republic of China. After the defeat in the civil war against the communists, the national Chinese Kuomintang government moved to Taiwan with its troops, while Mao Tsetung proclaimed the People’s Republic in Beijing in 1949. Today’s head of state, Xi Jinping, sees unification with Taiwan as a “historic mission”.
Are there military and economic reasons? The island between Japan and the Philippines has strategic importance. US General Douglas MacArthur once described Taiwan as the United States’ “unsinkable aircraft carrier”. A conquest by China would be an important building block in its great power ambitions because it would open the gateway to the Pacific.
In which areas is the USA currently dependent on China?
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The USA seem to want to become increasingly independent of China (e.g. own microchip production in the USA). The SRF community asks in which areas is the USA currently still dependent on China. “China and the USA are economically very dependent on each other,” explains economics editor Andreas Lüscher.
“The annual trade volume is over US$600 billion, with the US importing far more from China than vice versa. A look at the US import statistics shows that electrical machines, machines in general, toys, sports equipment, furniture and textiles are in high demand because the US lacks the necessary raw materials in these areas or US production is not price-competitive (e.g. due to higher wages and lack of government subsidies).»
Taiwan is number 22 of the major economies, industrially well developed and strongly intertwined with the world economy. A large part of the scarce semiconductors come from local companies. Because of its dependence on the Chinese market, European companies would be massively affected if economic sanctions were to be imposed on China, similar to those imposed on Russia.
Why is Taiwan recognized by only a few countries? China is forcing any country that wants diplomatic ties with Beijing not to have official contacts with Taiwan. There is talk of the “One China Principle”. Accordingly, Beijing is the only legitimate representative of China.
Legend:
The majority of Taiwanese have long seen themselves as independent and at least want to preserve the status quo.
Reuters/Ann Wang
Under Chinese pressure, Taiwan was expelled from the United Nations and international organizations. Only fewer than two dozen smaller countries still maintain diplomatic relations. The US operates only an unofficial mission in Taipei.
What do the Taiwanese want?
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The majority of Taiwanese have long seen themselves as independent and at least want to preserve the status quo. They also want to be internationally recognized as a democracy and not submit to a dictatorial system like in mainland China.
The former Kuomintang government once had a right to represent the whole of China, which is still reflected in the official name “Republic of China”. This claim was abandoned in 1994. At that time, Taiwan was changing from a dictatorship to a vibrant democracy. From the government’s point of view, any change in the status quo would have to be decided democratically by the 23 million Taiwanese today.
Is there a threat of military conquest by China in the near future? The danger has increased significantly under Xi Jinping. China has been modernizing for this for a long time, especially its navy and air force. It is assumed that the powerful president wants to implement the project during his term of office. In the fall, Xi Jinping wants to be confirmed for another five years.
Would the US defend Taiwan if attacked? After the US remained “strategically ambiguous” for deterrence purposes, US President Joe Biden has gone further than his predecessors. He repeatedly described defending Taiwan as an “obligation”. Whether with arms deliveries or troops, he left open. After diplomatic recognition of China, the United States had legally committed itself in 1979 with the “Taiwan Relations Act” to further support Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
Which countries would help China in trying to take it?
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“It is uncertain whether countries in the region would immediately join a military operation by China against Taiwan or not,” says diplomatic correspondent Fredy Gsteiger. “Unlike the United States, China has never built an alliance system based on the NATO model that automatically provides for mutual support.
Beijing’s only defense agreement exists with North Korea and dates from 1961. It is therefore conceivable that North Korea would take part in an invasion – given its limited military resources for such operations, however, participation would only be of a symbolic nature. It is also questionable whether Russia would participate, especially since China is currently not directly involved militarily in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but is only supporting it politically and diplomatically.
As clear pro-Chinese apply in the region Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. But they would hardly be allowed to participate militarily in a Chinese attack on Taiwan, but rather only give it political support. Clear China-critical are Japan and South Koreaalso – a little further away – Australia and New Zealand. Also in Vietnam people distrust China. However, it is unclear how far these countries’ support for Taiwan would go.
Most of the Southeast Asian countries avoid it, itself clearly for or against China and thus for or against Taiwan to position – like that Philippines, Indonesia or Malaysia. They don’t want to offend either the United States or their most important economic partner, China.”
