(Boursier.com) — Esker corrected by 5.4% to 278 euros the day after the publication of the best annual turnover in its history. The company’s sales reached 133.7 ME in 2021, up +20% at constant exchange rates and +19% as reported. Esker anticipates maintaining its operating profit at a level similar to that achieved in the first half of 2021.
Management also expects solid double-digit organic growth for the whole of 2022, which should bring turnover to around 155 ME if the euro/US dollar parity remains unchanged. At this level of growth, profitability should once again be between 12 and 15%.
While the indications on margins are unsurprising, the 2022 revenue guidance seems cautious, given the 25% increase in ARR; a more favorable currency effect; of the Market Dojo integration, explains Portzamparc. This corresponds, according to the broker’s calculations, to organic growth of 14% in 2022, where he expected more than 17% (for a turnover of 159.2 ME). Based on its scenario and the adjustment of comparables, the brokerage house raises the cursor from 290 to 300 euros (‘buy’).
Given the quality and profile of the company, as well as the market in which Esker is positioned, Oddo BHF remains very positive and takes a long-term view of the matter. Although the valuation of the sector will remain sensitive to the evolution of long rates in 2022 (long-duration asset, the terminal value represents 75% of the DCF), its conviction remains based on the continuation of a good momentum, secular growth close to 20%, high profitability, and a discount to sector peers (although reduced in 2021). In this context, the analyst renews his ‘outperformance’ opinion and his objective of 345 euros.
For Berenberg (‘buy’), the 2022 guidance implies another year of growth although it is in line with market expectations.
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