Driven by the initial approval of a future-based Bitcoin ETF in the USA, the Bitcoin price is jumping tirelessly north and is currently not far from its previous all-time high. The dominance of the crypto reserve currency is also still bullish and is achieving important price targets.
Bitcoin (BTC): breakout or false breakout
BTC course: 65,972 USD (previous week: 55,368 USD)
Resistance / goals: $ 64,896, $ 67,416, $ 69,660, $ 70,856, $ 76,472, $ 77,678, $ 85,563, $ 87,090, $ 89,982, $ 100,259, $ 114,961
Supports: $ 61,771, $ 59,470, $ 57,998, $ 55,817, $ 54,077, $ 53,005, $ 51,307, $ 50,325, $ 49,555, $ 48,222, $ 47,070, $ 46,040, $ 44,147, $ 42,855, $ 40,585, $ 39,240,
Bitcoin has remained bullish over the past seven days of trading. After the presumed break of several days between USD 54,077 and USD 57,998, Bitcoin has again increased significantly in value in the last few days. The approval of the first Bitcoin ETF in the US last Friday caused investors to increasingly pour altcoin investments back into Bitcoin. Just in time for the start of trading on the classic financial market, Bitcoin jumps to a new all-time high of over USD 66,000 and activates new price targets. On the downside, Bitcoin is now well supported at $ 55,817. Even a correction towards key support at USD 48,222 should be seen as unproblematic from a buyer’s point of view.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high in the last few minutes of trading, rising to over USD 66,000. Bitcoin’s price strength is currently also clearly evident in the underperformance of altcoins. The significant increase in Bitcoin dominance confirms this trend. Despite the formation of a new all-time high, it is imperative to confirm the breakout in the coming trading days. Only when the BTC rate has stabilized for several days above the previous all-time high of USD 64,896 should an increase to at least USD 67,416 be planned. If there is no trend reversal, a direct attack on USD 69,660 and resistance at USD 70,856 can be expected.
The 161 Fibonacci extension at USD 70,856 plays an important role here. If the buyer manages to overcome this resistance level at the daily closing price, a subsequent rise in the direction of the target area of this trend movement between USD 76,472 and USD 77,678 is likely. Increased profit-taking is to be expected in this zone. In the medium term, a breakthrough into the resist zone between USD 87,090 and USD 89,982 is increasingly likely by the end of the year. If the bulls manage to sustainably break through the resistance at USD 89,982, the 361 Fibonacci extension at USD 100,259 will come into focus. If Bitcoin reaches this important milestone and does not turn significantly south, the BTC rate could even target the 461 Fibonacci extension at USD 114,961.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)
At the moment, the bears seem to have lost the battle over price development for the coming period. There is only one last small chance if there is a so-called false outbreak after reaching the new all-time high. For this, the BTC rate must dynamically bounce down at USD 67,416 at the latest and correct back below the previous all-time high. If the bears manage to push the Bitcoin price back below USD 61,771, a consolidation back to USD 57,998 is conceivable. However, as long as the BTC rate does not sustainably correct below the supertrend at USD 55,817, this consolidation is only to be seen as taking a breath of the bull camp. If the buyer side manages to sell the BTC rate below the orange support area between USD 54,077 and USD 53,005, the correction extends to the EMA50 (orange) at USD 51,307.
If the Bitcoin price does not stabilize here either, the correction extends to USD 49,555. At the latest in the area of 48,222 USD, a directional decision will be made for the coming months. A clear drop below this support level increases the probability of a false outbreak noticeably. If the support at USD 47,070 is subsequently undershot, the correction extends immediately to USD 44,147. Two strong sliding support lines run in this price area: MA200 (green) and EMA200 (blue).
The bear camp takes the helm
A task of this support area would be a clear bearish indicator and significantly increase the probability of a correction widening to USD 42,855 or even USD 40,585. If the bears manage to sustainably undercut USD 40,585, a retest of the low at USD 39,240 is likely. The bulls have to show their colors at this support mark at the latest if they do not want to jeopardize the existing upward trend. Currently, USD 39,240 represents the maximum bearish price target for the coming period. Investors should use the setbacks in the BTC rate for new entries, as long as the key support at USD 48,222 is not given up at the daily closing price.
Bitcoin dominance: price reaches MA200
Bitcoin dominance is on the rise, which is not surprising given the strength of Bitcoin. After the market power of the crypto reserve currency was able to sustainably overcome the strong resistance at 45.71 percent last weekend, and thus also break through the MA200 (green), the trend dynamic increased and even left the dominance immediately above the EMA200 (blue) Break out 47.07 percent. The BTC dominance marked a new 60-day high yesterday, Tuesday, October 19, at 47.55 percent.
BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario
Bitcoin dominance still only knows one direction. The trend is showing a clear upward momentum and should stabilize above 47.07 percent in the near future towards 48.29 percent. Even a setback to the blue support area between 46.00 percent and 45.71 percent does not endanger the current upward trend. If Bitcoin dominance can assert itself above the EMA200 in the coming trading days, a subsequent increase of up to 48.29 percent is likely. If there are no significant setbacks here either, the orange resistance zone comes into focus.
The resistance range between 48.67 percent and 49.26 percent is still to be seen as the maximum increase target in the short term. Only when the high of July 30, 2021 can be broken sustainably, is a breakthrough to the psychological mark of 50 percent or even up to 50.97 percent conceivable. A reset is to be expected here at the latest. If the Bitcoin price remains bullish in the coming months, a jump in the direction of the gray resist zone between 52.19 percent and 53.16 percent cannot be ruled out.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
The BTC dominance has to correct back below the 47.07 percent in a timely manner in order to slide back towards the MA200 at 45.71 percent. Even if the Bitcoin dominance falls back below this support, the next strong support is already waiting at the top of the red support area. With EMA20 (red) and the supertrend at 44.54 percent, there are further potential reversal marks here. Only when the BTC dominance corrects more strongly and dynamically falls below this price mark, a fallback towards 44.00 percent and below is conceivable. If the BTC dominance subsequently slips back below the red support zone, the 42.99 percent and in particular the support at 42.45 percent move back into the focus of investors.
Should the BTC dominance break through these two supports, the bears will gradually regain the upper hand. The monthly low of 41.13 percentage points could then be approached again. This will show whether the BTC dominance will break away again towards 40.66 percent and below. A sustained relapse below this important support makes a retest of the 40 percent mark likely. This could also lead to a renewed consistency test of the annual low at 39.66 percent. From the current perspective, however, such a strong correction is to be regarded as unlikely.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.86 euros.