ETH investors must defend this price level

After the course of Ethereum (ETH) as well as Bitcoin (BTC) had worked through important price targets last weekend, the ETH course is currently correcting. The bulls have been struggling in the last few trading days in the strong resistance zone between $1,654 and $1,679. A weak sales outlook from the technology heavyweight Microsoft on Tuesday evening, January 24th, caused a price setback during the night to the important cross support from the historical low and EMA200 (blue). So far, however, the buyer side has been able to defend the price level of 1,509 US dollars. As long as this support level holds, the bulls should keep trying to push Ether price back above $1,579 towards the yellow resistance area. A task of $ 1,509 by the end of the day, on the other hand, makes follow-up sales to the gray support zone between $ 1,467 and $ 1,425 likely.

The buyer camp must now try to stabilize Ethereum at the EMA200 in the short term. With all charts showing bearish divergence in the RSI indicator from the 2-hour to the daily chart, a break of this key moving average line would turn the market structure towards sell in the short-term. The MACD is also about to give a fresh sell signal on a daily basis and provides additional support for this scenario. Investors should keep an eye on the $1,425 mark in particular. The Supertrend is currently also running at this cross support. It is also important to keep the US dollar index DXY in focus. The Bitcoin course, like the Ethereum course, is currently benefiting from a persistently weak dollar. However, since it is also trading at a key support, a bullish countermove in the US dollar would mean additional headwinds for cryptocurrencies.

• Bullish price targets: $1,579, $1,654/1,679, $1,723, $1,776, $1,834, $1,909, $1,958/$2,013, $2,089, $2,162

Bullish price targets for the coming weeks

As expected, the ether price has shown its bullish side since the last price analysis on January 5th. Supported by a friendly start to the year for the US stock indices Nasdaq and S&P 500 and an ongoing correction in the US dollar, the ether price rose by 40 percentage points. As a result of significant price increases in the key cryptocurrency Bitcoin on the first two weekends of this year, the ether price rose back to the historical high of early November. In the last few days, however, there has been increased profit-taking and the Ethereum price has consolidated back to the EMA200. The bulls must now do everything possible to stabilize Ethereum here. A first sign would be a retake of $1,579. If this price mark is recaptured, the yellow resistance area will come into focus again.

Higher price targets come into focus

Should the bulls then succeed in breaking this zone as well, the overriding target area between 1,723 and 1,776 US dollars, which has already been discussed in previous price analyses, will come into focus as a target zone. Ethereum last failed here in September 2022. Should this price target be reached, the Ether course would have recovered significantly faster than forecast back north. Again, profit-taking needs to be factored in. If the market continues to be strong here and Ethereum can break out of this resist at the daily closing price, the next impulse above the intermediate target of 1,834 US dollars in the direction of 1,913 US dollars can be expected. The blue target area acts as the maximum bullish zone for the bulls in the coming weeks. The high from August of the previous year is between 1,958 and 2,013 US dollars. Ethereum could only march through to US$ 2,089 and even to the resistance at US$ 2,162 in the medium term if this area has also been broken through for a long time. This mark is derived from the distinctive low from January 2022.

• Bearish price targets: $1,509, $1,489, $1,425, $1,390, $1,352, $1,305, $1,274, $1,232, $1,190/$1,150, $1,102, $1,074

Bearish price targets for the coming trading weeks

After a hibernation in the first weeks of trading in the new calendar year, the bears emerged in time to ward off a last-second breakout above the $1,679 level. The seller is currently trying to counterattack. A break back below $1,509 is likely to see follow-on sell-offs to at least $1,489, but more likely towards $1,448. The 38 Fibonacci retracement of the current consolidation movement runs here. At the latest at 1,425 US dollars, both sides then have to show their colors. The bulls should not give up this mark if possible. If Ethereum slides back below this strong support and then also below EMA50 (orange) at $1,390, the correction will extend to the breakout level at $1,351. For their part, the bears should target the golden pocket of the corrective move at $1,305.

Important Ethereum price level reached for the future

At this mark, there is an attractive entry level for buyers. On the other hand, if the bulls remain abstinent here, the probability of a correction extension to at least US$1,274 prevails. A short slide up to 1,232 US dollars would then have to be planned for. If the overall market continues to be weak and cannot initiate a countermovement, the orange target area around the December low will come into focus again. Expect a strong bull-bear battle between $1,190 and $1,150. If the bears win the showdown and the support at $1,102 is dynamically undercut as a result, the likelihood of a retest of the November 2022 low at $1,075 increases significantly.

Whether this support level can be defended a third time may also depend on the development of the Bitcoin price and the strength of the US dollar. Investors should also keep a close eye on the US reporting season in the coming weeks. If the sales and profit prospects for the first half of the year in particular are below analysts’ expectations, the stock market could lose even more significantly and thus also weigh on the crypto market. If there is new bad news, a sell-off down to the purple zone between 1,037 and 992 US dollars is conceivable at any time. If the buy side fails to initiate a reversal here, the correction will extend straight to at least $935. A direct sell-off down to the low for the year at 882 US dollars can then no longer be ruled out.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.95.