Ethereum 2.0 (ETH): Price breakout taking shape

• Course (ETH): $1,568 (previous week: $1,286)
• Short-term resistances/goals: $1,574, $1,641/1,654, $1,723, $1,776, $1,825, $1,909, $2,013, $2,089, $2,164, $2,305, $2,448/2,485, $2,733, $2,815
• Short-term supports: $1,532, $1,489, $1,425, $1,391/1,367, $1,320/1,238, $1,189, $1,062, $992, $935, $882

Ethereum Recap

• The wait is finally over! In the last two trading days, the ether price has risen sharply by 18 percentage points.
• The second-largest cryptocurrency was not only able to break away from the sideways range of the previous weeks between USD 1,280 and USD 1,370, but also pulverized the overarching downward trend line in the cross-resistance area at USD 1,489.
• The massive coverage of the whales in the last few weeks now seems to be bearing fruit. The interest of small investors – around 135,000 new Ethereum addresses were created every day in mid-October alone – is currently having a positive effect on the price development.
• Another reason seems to be the lack of new Ethereum tokens. Since the “merge” from Proof-of-Work (POW) to Proof-of-Stake (POS) there has been an increase in deflationary development in the Ethereum network. According to classical economic theory, an increasing demand for Ethereum with a simultaneously falling supply leads to rising prices. This now seems to be true in the development of the Ether course.
• The ongoing price consolidation of the US Dollar Index (DXY) also seems to be positive for the price development of Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market as a whole. As discussed several times in the past, investors should always keep an eye on the development of the US dollar exchange rate, as it shows an anti-correlation with its trading pairs.

Looking at the indicators

• Looking at the RSI and MACD indicators, the bullish picture is confirmed in the daily chart. The MACD still has a lot of room up and should act as a price support. On the other hand, the RSI indicator is now trading in overbought territory at a reading of 75.
• There is also a bearish divergence in the hourly chart. A temporary “breathing” of the ether course should therefore not come as a surprise. Courses move in waves, too strong an increase within too short a period of time may please investors, but is rather counterproductive for a sustained bullish price development.
• However, the weekly chart still has a lot of room to go up. Here the MACD already has a first buy signal and the RSI has also returned above the 45 into the neutral zone. A fresh long signal only occurs when jumping above 55.

Bullish Scenario (Ethereum)

• The Ethereum bulls used the breakout of the key crypto currency Bitcoin and recently pushed the Ether course significantly north.
• That Ethereum, after recapturing the important price mark of USD 1,425 yesterday, October 25th, despite weak quarterly figures from the Internet giants Alphabet and Microsoft, was able to break out of the red downward trend line today and also the golden pocket of the last trend movement at USD 1,532 seems to break through without problems is another positive indicator.
• Nonetheless, investors should not ignore a possible retest of the downtrend line between USD 1,489 and USD 1,425.
• In the last few hours, the ether price reached the EMA200 in the weekly chart at USD 1,596, which is why a price bounce must be planned for.
• If Ethereum rises sustainably above the resistance at USD 1,574 in the direction of the cross-resistance at USD 1,650, the next short-term target area would have been completed. In addition to an important horizontal resist, the 78 Fibonacci retracement of the last price movement also runs here.
• If the buyer camp succeeds in sending Ethereum north above USD 1,654 in a timely manner, there is a good chance of a march through towards the important resistance level at USD 1,723. Here, profit-taking should be planned in the first attempt.
• If this mark is also overcome without sustained price setbacks, and ideally USD 1,776 is approached, the next strong price hurdle is already waiting here with the EMA200 (blue).
• A price setback is therefore very likely.

A preliminary decision is approaching

• A preliminary decision can be expected at the latest at USD 1,825. Here is the trailing edge from August 19 of this year.
• Only when this resistance level has also been overcome does the chart image continue to brighten and Ethereum should take off directly in the direction of the blue resistance zone.
• If there is no dynamic price reversal to the south at USD 1,909 either, the bulls will do everything possible to target the historical high of August 14 at USD 2,031.
• The bears should be there again to stave off a last-minute breakout like in August.
• However, if the bulls win the fight, the recovery move will immediately extend to the $2,089 area.
• This would also put the medium-term target price of USD 2,164 within reach. The striking price low of January 24, 2022 runs here, which should now act as a resist.
• If Ethereum also overcomes this resist without significant setbacks, the next targets for increases will be activated at USD 2,305 and USD 2,485.
• If the crypto market continues to be bullish as a result, a direct increase up to the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the overriding downward movement at USD 2,538 is also conceivable.
• Then Ethereum could even start the old tearing edge in the range between USD 2,733 and USD 2,815.
• This area initially represents the maximum price target until the end of the year.

Bearish Scenario (Ethereum)

• The bears have been increasingly falling behind in recent days. The seller side must try to turn the tables in their favor again as soon as possible.
• A first partial success could be seen in the pullback up to USD 1,489. Optimally, the seller camp hailed the bulls’ breakout by selling the ether price back below USD 1,425 in one go.
• If this plan succeeds and Ethereum falls back below the downtrend line, a false breakout is at stake. It would be confirmed on a break of the $1,389-$1,367 zone.
• Investors then focus on the next relevant target zone between USD 1,320 and USD 1,283.
• This is where the 23 Fibonacci retracement of the overall price action runs. In particular, the bulls must defend the price mark of USD 1,283 in order to avert a pullback back into the green support zone between USD 1,263 and USD 1,223.

The cops had better be there

• If this area is undercut without any notable resistance from the bulls, and even the low of USD 1,189 does not provide any stability, a relapse to the old support zone between USD 1,062 and USD 999 is increasingly likely.
• As repeatedly mentioned in the last course analysis of Ethereum, this support area represents the make-or-break level on the underside.
• If the bears succeed in selling below the purple support zone, the correction will initially extend to USD 935.
• However, a direct retest of the annual low at USD 881 is also conceivable. In view of the strong upward movement of the last few days, a relapse below the previous year’s low is not to be planned for the time being.
• Investors should use pullbacks to the zone between USD 1,489 and USD 1,425 for purchases.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.99.