- Course (ETH): $2,435 (previous week: $2,733)
- Resistances/Goals: $2,659, $2,733, $2,954, $3,117, $3,273, $3,408, $3,618, $3,752, $3,898, $4,043, $4,158, $4,339, $4,547, $4,719, $4,864, $5,0733 , $6,014, $7,027, $8,666, $11,318
- Supports: $2,305, $2,174, $2,044, $1,930, $1,725/1,713, $1,545, $1,425, $1,359, $1,223
Course analysis based on the pair of values ETH/USD on Bitfinex
- Ethereum now capped below USD 2,954.
- The bears are still in control for the time being.
- Below USD 2,174 there is a threat of a fall back into the green support zone.
The ether course slipped to the support at USD 2,174 last weekend before a countermovement began. This took Ethereum back to the bottom of the key level at $2,733 before the bears initiated a fresh sell-off. The ether price has thus worked through the price targets mentioned in the previous week’s analysis in the short term. Ether is currently trading just above the support at USD 2,305 and should defend it in order to avert a relapse to the weekly low. A first sign of recovery would be a recapture of the orange zone.
Bullish Variant (Ethereum):
After a brief recovery, the bulls once again gave the floor to the bears. The buyer side should now do everything in its power to defend the area between USD 2,305 and USD 2,174. If stabilization is successful in this zone, the area between USD 2,659 and USD 2,733 per daily closing price must first be overcome before further short-term upside potential is generated.
As a result, Ethereum must also break through the EMA20 (red) at currently USD 2,850 in order to rise to the next resistance at USD 2,954. If this mark is also recaptured, there will be several hurdles in the range between USD 3,117 and USD 3,273 at the latest. The Supertrend as well as the EMA50 (orange) are now strong resistance levels. Should the bulls succeed in breaking through this area as well, the turquoise resist zone will come into focus again.
It is important to pay attention to this zone
The EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green) combined with the 65 Fibonacci retracement are currently running at USD 3,408. Without massive buying pressure, this resistance zone will be difficult to break. If the bulls succeed in attacking and recapturing this area in the medium term, the next target price will be activated at USD 3,618. A dynamic crossing of this resistance is necessary in order to initially brighten the chart picture and give way towards USD 3,752 and USD 3,898. Here the bears are likely to hold back again. If this area is regained in perspective, the next price targets will be activated at USD 4,043 and USD 4,158.
This strong resistance cluster is to be seen as a medium-term price target for the coming period. Only when Ethereum can sustainably overcome this zone will the USD 4,339 mark come into focus again. As long as Bitcoin does not sustainably rise back above USD 60,000, a direct march through to USD 4,547 is hardly imaginable. If there is an increase above it in the long term, a march through to USD 4,719 and the all-time high at USD 4,864 is possible. Higher price targets are not expected for the time being.
Bearish Variant (Ethereum)
The bears did not refrain from selling off the interim recovery up to USD 2,733 again this week. If the seller succeeds in letting the Ethereum price break below USD 2,305 in a timely manner, a retest of the weekly low should first be planned. If the USD 2,174 does not hold, the corrective movement will immediately expand into the green support zone. Then a fall back up to USD 1,930 is to be planned for. If the ether course is passed through here, there is a preliminary decision between USD 1,795 and USD 1,713.
At least one countermovement back towards USD 1,930 or even USD 2,174 is likely. However, if the bulls give up the USD 1,713 mark at the daily closing price, there is a risk of a sensitive sell-off of up to USD 1,545. Even a direct retest of USD 1,425 should not come as a surprise. In this area, it is important to see if the bulls can form a bottom. However, if this attempt fails, Ethereum could even break away to the maximum bearish price target of between USD 1,359 and USD 1,223 in the coming months. At this point at the latest, a massive counter-movement to the north can be expected.
Indicators (Ethereum)
Both the RSI and the MACD continue to show sell signals in the daily chart. Since both indicators also show active short signals in the weekly chart, at least one retest of USD 1,713 is conceivable from an indicator perspective.
Terra (Luna): Terra arrived at first important support zone
- Course (LUNA): $49.73 (previous week: $64.13)
- Resistances/Goals: $53.39, $58.15, $62.92, $69.70, $78.34, $87.70, $93.84, $103.73, $118.70, $143.65
- Supports: $49.62, $47.50, $44.96, $41.41, $37.97, $34.91, $32.28, $29.80, $25.24, $22.45, $17.49
Course analysis based on the pair of values LUNA/USD on Binance
- Luna price falls 37 percent week-on-week to the south.
- Above USD 69.70, Luna price should regain momentum.
- Terra is now trading within the parent support area at $49.85.
Terra joins the overall market in the last few trading days and corrects significantly to the south. The abandonment of USD 69.70 caused a significant pullback to the key support zone between USD 53.39 and USD 44.96. The buy side must defend this area to avert a sell off towards $37.97.
Bullish Variant (Terra)
The LUNA course had to bow to the weakness of the overall market in the last few trading days and slipped significantly on a weekly basis. Terra is currently trading in the yellow support zone again. The first strong support level is found at USD 49.62 on the EMA200 (blue). In the first attempt, the bulls should do everything in their power to defend this support level on a daily basis. A short-term relapse to the 23 Fibonacci retracement at USD 47.50 or even a direct retest of the MA200 (green) at the lower edge of the yellow zone also seems possible.
At the latest at this price level, the bulls should come back into the market to avert an expansion of the correction. If a turnaround succeeds, Terra must first recapture the USD 53.39 and USD 58.15 marks. Then there is a first directional decision at USD 62.92. If the bulls surpass the 61 Fibonacci retracement, LUNA price is likely to rally to the first short-term price target at $69.70. Here you will find a whole bunch of resistances with EMA20 (red), EMA50 (orange) and the 78 Fibonacci extension. Terra will fail here in the first attempt.
Directional decision expected
If this resistance can be climbed back in perspective, the next strong hurdle awaits in the area of USD 78.34. In addition to the old all-time high, you can also find the super trend in the daily chart here. If this resistance level is broken by the daily closing price, a directional decision will be made at USD 87.70 at the latest. The Luna course recently failed significantly here. A dynamic jump back above this resistance activates the 138 Fibonacci extension as the next price target. At the beginning of the year, Terra made no progress here and fell back significantly.
Should the bulls recapture this resist in the medium term, a retest of the all-time high at USD 103.28 should be planned. If the Luna price can subsequently hold its own here without any significant setbacks and break out above the USD 103.73 mark at the end of the day, Terra could then initially target the USD 118.70 mark. If the LUNA price subsequently stabilizes above the current all-time high, a subsequent increase up to the 261 Fibonacci extension at USD 143.65 is conceivable in the long term. From the current perspective, this resistance level can be derived as the maximum price target.
Bearish Variant (Terra)
If the LUNA price falls back below the EMA200 at the end of the day as the overall market weakness continues to widen, the correction extends immediately to the MA200 at USD 44.96. In the first attempt, a counter-movement to the north is likely.
Only when the lower edge of the yellow support zone is also abandoned will the price correction expand to USD 41.41 or even directly to the low from November 2021 at USD 37.97. Even a short spike up to USD 34.91 should not come as a surprise. In the past, this area was hotly contested several times. A dynamic break below should then see Terra fall back above USD 32.28 towards the red support zone.
Bearish targets are getting closer
In the area between USD 29.80 and USD 25.24, Terra formed a strong bottom, which laid the basis for the jump above USD 100 in 2021. This brings the price low of September 7, 2021 back into focus. If, contrary to expectations, the LUNA price does not stabilize here either, and the overall market continues to weaken, a retest of the old all-time high of USD 22.45 is also conceivable.
The first bargain hunters are likely to come back to the market here. The maximum bearish price target for Luna is $17.49. For the time being, a relapse under this support is not to be expected. Investors can currently build up initial long positions in the yellow zone, but should provide them with a stop loss below this support area.
Indicators (Terra)
The RSI indicator keeps showing a sell signal. With a value of 31, however, Terra is slowly entering the oversold zone. The same applies to the MACD. Since the MACD indicator has now also generated a sell-signal in the weekly chart and the RSI has plunged back into the neutral zone between 45 and 55, a trend acceleration towards the south cannot be ruled out.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.87.
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