Despite the fall, cryptocurrencies could rebound?- Yesterday, cryptocurrencies fell. THE Bitcoin registers a 5% drop on the day yesterday. I’Etherfor its part, has fell more than 6%. Ethereum blocked at the resistance at $1,680. Has this move affected the momentum in recent weeks? Should we be worried about altcoins? Let’s look at the clues left by the graphs!
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66% of circulating supply still in profit on Ethereum
When a token transits, we can know if its value is higher or lower compared to the last time it was in motion. Let’s take an example :
John decides to put his Ether on his Ledger key. The price of Ether is at that time at $1,500. A few months later, Jean thinks it’s time to put his Ether back on an exchange. Meanwhile, the price of Ether has risen. He is now at $2,000. Through the analysis we–chain, we can record these movements and study them.
Thus, one can estimate excess profit levels and excess loss levels.
When the percentage of outstanding supply in profit exceeds 95%we can deduce that the majority of actors are in profit. Historically, we notice that this threshold is a excess. The market tends to turn around. On the other hand, when the circulating supply is below 30%the majority of actors are in loss. It is historically a excellent shopping area.
As Ethereum’s price fell by almost 80%the percentage of circulating supply is still in large profit. Indeed, to date, 66% of circulating supply is in profit. Since the top, the percentage of circulating supply has not reached the 30% threshold. Has the excess experienced in 2021 been sufficiently erased?
Ethereum stalls at resistance level at $1,680
In 3-day time units, Ethereum is stuck at $1,680. The dynamic is bullish in that time frame, but buyers are unable to close above the latest high at $1,680.
Despite yesterday’s drop, the price remains uptrend since the double bottom and the close above $1,350. The course is located the level of institutional bias. A rebound could occur in the days to come. If so, the objective will remain the same on the bull side: to break the resistance at $1,680, then that at $1,900. Attention ! There bearish trendline has already postponed the course. She could continue to block.
In case the sellers take over here, a feedback the level of support at 1250 dollars would be possible. On the momentum side, the RSI is still encouraging. The RSI is still moving above the bullish trendline and as long as it is, the buyers will have the advantage.
In the short term, Ethereum must hold the $1,515
Last week, we were talking about the possibility of returning to the tidy in 4 hours between 1,640 and $1,515. Indeed, buyers failed to close above 1,725 dollars and the sellers took advantage of it.
A fence above 1,725 dollars would have allowed the price to remain in an upward trend in a 4H time unit. From now on, buyers will have to defend the range support at $1,515. Either way, breaking out of this range will require buyers to break through resistance and push above $1,725.
THE institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is trending down. He pcould act as resistance dynamic in the coming days. If the sellers regain control, the support at $1,515 could let go and the momentum could change. In this case, a feedback next level support at 1,400 dollars seems possible.
The momentum was showing bearish divergence, a sign that buyers were running out of steam. Also, the bearish trendline made resistance. It will have to be broken to regain buying power.
Ether regains strength against Bitcoin, but the situation may not last
For the past week, the price of the ETH/BTC pair has been rebounding. A rebound which remains timid and the price is already against the downward institutional bias.
The price of the ETH/BTC pair has been evolving for several months now between 0.065 BTC and 0.079 BTC. These are the two key levels on this pair. here are the two scenarios depending on the break of one of the two terminals:
- Breakage of the resistance at 0.079 BTC : This would be great news for altcoins. Indeed, Ethereum being the leader of altcoins, it could take advantage of it to gain value.
- Breakage of support at 0.065 BTC : a breakout of this level would be negative for altcoins. The price could then head down the range at 0.06 BTC.
The momentum is once again trying to break the bearish trendline. If the RSI definitely leaves this zone and builds a real bullish momentum, the ETH/BTC pair could go up again.
Bitcoin dominance is falling, could altcoins benefit?
Since November 2022, the dominance of Bitcoin has been on the rise again. However, the price is blocking at the level of the 44% resistance of dominance.
Despite the recent fall, the dominance bitcoin remains short term bullish. Indeed, the price shows troughs and ascending peaks and the institutional bias East pointing up. Moreover, the price is at the level of these moving averages. They could act as a dynamic support. Capital could once again flow into altcoins if the momentum changes and resistance at 44% dominance holds (red arrow).
On the other hand, if the resistance breaks, capital will continue to flow into Bitcoin. There next resistance is at 47%. This level corresponds to the top of the range. We should avoid evolving above for altcoins.
Rebound to come on the capitalization of altcoins?
The capitalization of altcoins is at the level of the upward institutional bias. A bounce could be set up.
There capitalization altcoins is bullish. It continues to show bottoms and rising tops. The bearish trendline is broken. Buyers could react at the level of institutional bias. If this is the case, the price may rebound and head towards the resistance at $670 billion. At this level, the bearish trendline and resistance could act as a barrier. To find colors on the altcoins, it will be necessary to break this weekly resistance.
The RSI falls in the short term, but momentum remains overall bullish. We will have to wait for a change in dynamics on the RSI to think that the sellers are regaining control of the momentum.
In the end, the course of ether is in the process of block at $1,680. Whatever happens, buyers will need to break through resistance at $1,680 and then $1,900 to regain momentum on a weekly basis. Short term, price will need to hold support at $1,515. Bullish continuation could be in place in the event of a close above $1,725 in 4H. Altcoins have the opportunity to bounce here. In case of reboundthe capitalization of altcoins can go to the resistance at $670 billions. Despite the fall, could cryptocurrencies continue to climb?
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