Can’t wait for the end of the bear run on the prince of cryptos? – Hopes are currently outweighing fears with regard to the recent evolution of the price of Ethereum (ETH). Indeed, it is supported by inter-market factors such as the decline in the dollar and bond rates. Not to mention that leading indicators could potentially predict a change in the Fed’s monetary policy in the near future. However, he may be wiser to wait for his meeting next Wednesday at the risk of taking bad initiatives that could be paid for in cash.
Nevertheless, we will retain the impression that the bears could partly start to really give ground. However, the losses from FTX’s bankruptcy cannot be erased with the stroke of a pen. Even if most of this risk is already well integrated into the courses of the prince of cryptos.
In a market context where the major uncertainties seem to want to gradually calm down, let’s carefully examine the latest technical analyzes of ETH.
Ethereum in weekly units – The courses above the Kijun
By validating a third consecutive week on the rise, the Ethereum is now crossing the Kijun. This allows him to come back close to the resistance of $1700, a level at which the bulls block psychologically. But unlike previous attempts last year, we have some chart signals that deserve a closer look.
First of all, price crossing beyond the descending line of the bear run would gain in value. Provided that the 1700$ are spanned. Second, the Tenkan is starting a bullish momentum, which itself would require confirmation in the coming weeks. And lately, the fact that the Chikou Span is almost back to $1,700 with a previous lag of 26 weeks in relation to prices, would temporarily save us from the bears’ blows.
In the event that the bulls manage to get rid of the $1700, we could partially challenge the status quo of the price of ETH and the Chikou Span under the Kumo. In this sense, it would concern the first who would return inside the Ichimoku cloud. With the objective that it climbs towards $2300.
Conversely, yet another rejection below $1700 would lead us to two possible scenarios. Either we would go on a consolidation accompanied by a throwback on $1400 before a new upward wave. Or else we would fall back into the failings of last year. And in this case, we would risk falling back towards $1200 or below if the market context were to go into a spin.
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Ethereum in daily units
Last week, I mentioned a consolidation due to a large upward gap between the price of Ethereum and Tenkan in daily units. Finally, this overbuying alert was corrected without incident. Because thereafter, the rebound of the prince of cryptos currently extends towards $ 1700. With courtyards and a Chikou Span that sits well above the Kumo.
Now the immediate issue would be whether ETH has the ability to hold this strong rebound to hit the next resistances. And at first sight, there would be reason to wait for better technical conditions to accelerate the rise. The proof is that the Kijun has stopped its bullish momentum for a few days. So much so that it diverges from the Tenkan.
Assuming that $1700 turns out to be an ironclad bulwark against the bulls, the price of Ethereum would eventually land in the direction of $1400, not far from the Kijun, but with a passage under the Tenkan. This would simultaneously correspond to a consolidation of the Chikou Span at $1400, close to the upper limit of the Kumo. And in which case, we would materialize higher prior lows in a bid to set up a rebound that could neutralize the Prince of Cryptos’ bear run since his last ATH in November 2021.
On the other hand, the breakout of $1400 would probably be a stoppage on the bull side. Or conversely, the bears would relaunch halfway. But from there to cry catastrophic, it would be necessary to push the 1200$ for the fears of new lows to be put back on the carpet. And as a result, we would converge on prices and a Chikou Span below the Kumo in both weekly and daily units.
In summary, one can afford the luxury of optimism given recent chart signals in both weekly and daily units. However, let’s not try to declare victory too soon. Because as long as the price of Ethereum does not mark new highs – i.e. major resistances that would soon become supports – then the bears will remain on the lookout.
Not only, the bulls must soon adapt to the significant thickness of the future Kumo in weekly units, which itself would temper the return of risk aversion on the prince of cryptos. But a nasty surprise from the FED regarding its monetary policy from next week would potentially wipe out some of the gains across all of the risky classes.
And since the cryptocurrencies were the last to rise, a hard landing on the levels at the worst of the FTX affair would not be ruled out. What not to bury definitively the resumption of the bear run of ETH since its last ATH in November 2021. With the fear that the courses do not end up listing below $1000 against all expectations.
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