The prince of crypto soon at a crossroads? – Investors were eagerly awaiting the outlines of Credit Suisse’s bailout by its domestic competitor UBS. While the equity indices initially suffered, they recovered throughout the day. And it is logical that cryptocurrencies have somewhat marked time, like the price of Ethereum (ETH) which does not escape completely above $1700.
Especially since the FED meeting promises to be lively. The serious disappointments of the banking sector could encourage it to change its plans regarding its monetary policy. Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Nomura would respectively push for a break or a rate cut. But given that the ECB raised rates as expected last Thursday, a 25 basis point rate hike is still on the cards for the US central bank.
In a market context where volatility has returned for a few weeks, let’s now look at the latest technical analyzes of the price of ETH and the scenarios that could emerge at the end of Wednesday’s monetary meeting. With the hope that the $1700 glass ceiling will finally be history.
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Market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding BTC – Watch out for the pullback below the falling line!
Since the beginning of the year, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding BTC has started a significant rebound to the point of returning to contact with 600 billion dollars. However, it comes at a pivotal moment from a graphical point of view. Indeed, she has been running into the downline since her last ATH in November 2021.
Failure under this hurdle over the next few weeks would not send a favorable message about the cryptocurrency cycle. Which would certainly rule out a return of the Altseason, but would strengthen Bitcoin’s leadership. On the other hand, a forced passage would relaunch the debates on neutralizing the bear run.
Ethereum in weekly units – Price is getting closer to Kumo again
Seeing the price of Ethereum close to $1850 during the weekend, we would have thought that the bulls had definitively freed themselves from $1700. But the jump in the equity indices at the start of the week has slowed the progress of the prince of cryptos beyond this cursed resistance since mid-June 2022. This would probably be explained by the wait-and-see attitude of investors before the meeting of the Fed the next day.
Although we note that the prices are currently above $1700, we have not yet confirmed its crossing and even that of the descending line. So far, ETH price and the Chikou Span remain stuck below the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud). This keeps the bears on borrowed time, and therefore the risk of a relapse at any time.
Assuming the bulls’ plan goes smoothly, the $1700 would move from resistance to support. With the prospect that the course of Ethereum goes inside the Kumo. And why not aim for $2,000 which would concretely lead to a neutralization of its bear run since its last ATH in November 2021.
However, as the market context becomes tense, the bulls would not be at the mercy of yet another failure below $1700. In which case, we would come back in the direction of the Tenkan which is located in contact with the descending line. A bearish extension below the more volatile Ichimoku curve would send ETH back towards the Kijun, not far from $1400.
Ethereum in Daily Units – Slight Consolidation Ahead of FED
In daily units, we spoke of a rebound that turned out to be excessive last week. And for good reason, the Tenkan deviates dangerously on the rise compared to the Kijun. Nonetheless, that hasn’t stopped the prince of cryptos from continuing its rebound slightly above $1700 as we speak. At the same time, the passage from 1400 to 1700$ in the space of a week allowed the price of Ethereum and the Chikou Span to be above the Kumo. With the difference that the second finally crosses the descending line.
If in weekly units, the crossing of $1700 is not yet acquired, it would be on the way to being according to the reading of the daily chart. But to be more advanced on this subject, investors will have to wait after the FED meeting on Wednesday. Not climbing too quickly beyond this resistance would seem relatively healthy to us in the run-up to a major macro event.
In this sense, we would preserve the chances of a daily throwback on the $1700. This favorable signal would catapult the price of Ethereum towards the resistance of $2000a level that has not been reached since mid-August 2022. Especially since this would confirm the neutralization scenario of the bear run with prices settling in the Ichimoku cloud in weekly units.
Conversely, we would witness a false breakout above $1700, which itself would lead the prince of cryptos under the Tenkan and possibly a triple return to contact with the Kijun, the descending line and the upper limit of the Kumo, the Senkou Span A (SSA). And if the consolidation were to increase, we would risk threatening the status quo of the price of ETH and the Chikou Span beyond the Kumo.
In summary, nothing is decided yet about a possible neutralization of the bear run of the prince of crypto since his last ATH in November 2021. Although we have the feeling that the crossing of $1700 would be on track, he will have to imperative to chain a second consecutive week on the rise, and as well as the previous one.
A breakout inside the Kumo in weekly units would put serious pressure on the bears side. On the other hand, the simultaneous conjunction of a fall in rates, the dollar and inflation constitutes a significant support for the price of Ethereum.
Assuming that the FED indirectly mentions a pause in monetary tightening over the next few months, this scenario could favor the current surge of the prince of cryptos. But in the event that it follows its dashboard with a rate hike of 25 basis points, very smart who will anticipate what will happen given a market context that has gone up a notch in terms of stress.
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