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Do the Chabab (“the young people”) now have their eyes fixed on Ethiopia? Fears have been fueled since the major offensive launched on July 20 by the Somali group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. During the attack, around 2,000 Islamist fighters stormed the long border that separates the two countries, advancing in some places more than 150 km into Ethiopian territory.
Although the Ethiopian army has reconquered its territory after two weeks of intense fighting and airstrikes, the situation is far from stabilized. A month and a half after the operations, skirmishes continue along the border. “The situation is still very fluid in the border areas”, says an administrator from the Somali region in eastern Ethiopia, who wishes to remain anonymous. A Western diplomat in Addis Ababa says regional authorities are “nervous” due to possible infiltration.
Especially since several sources report the breakthrough of a hundred Chabab in the heart of Ethiopia, near the Bale area, in the Oromia region. “They are trying to establish a long-term presence, to create cells and to recruit”says Omar Mahmood, Somalia specialist at the think tank International Crisis Group. This mountainous area is strategic because of the ancient establishment of Salafist Islam and the land claims of the population, which could facilitate recruitment by the Islamist group.
This offensive is not “a coincidence”
The scale of the attack launched at the end of July, with vehicles and supplies mobilized in large numbers, impressed several observers of the Somali powder keg. “I am surprised by the degree of organization and resources of the group. It’s a first. We have never seen an incursion like this in a foreign country”notes Omar Mahmood.
This offensive “is neither a coincidence nor a one-off operation”, warned the former commander of American forces in Africa, General Stephen Townsend, at the end of July. Historically, the Al-Shabaab have always had Ethiopia in their sights. The country, which has multiplied military interventions in Somalia over the past two decades to try to ward off the threat, is their sworn enemy. “Waving the Ethiopian rag is always popular to mobilize in the Somali environment”summarizes Roland Marchal, researcher at the CNRS.
According to him, the Chabab operation is the result of a reflection carried out by the group for more than a year in the light of “recent events in Ethiopia”, with the ” opportunities ” what represent “political instability linked to the civil war” in Tigray (north) and “the weakening of the security services since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power”.
Oromo have been enlisted for many years within a unit of the group called “Ethiopian Front”
Authors of terrorist attacks in Somalia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania – the last dates back to the bloody assault on the Hayat hotel on August 20 in Mogadishu, which left at least 21 dead – Somali Islamist fighters never managed to strike in Ethiopia. They could adopt another modus operandi there, according to Roland Marchal: “It’s a safe bet that they will carry out a discreet policy of rooting. Their primary objective is not to carry out attacks, but to be accepted and to forge links. »
A process that has already begun. Thus, Oromo have been enlisted for many years within a unit of the group called “Ethiopian Front” and who was part of the recent offensive. In July, a few days before the Chabab attack, an operation by the Ethiopian security services in the Bale area cost the life of a preacher, accused of enlisting local youth on behalf of the Islamist group.
Target “French and American interests”
“The Chabab define themselves as a transnational organization. They don’t want to be seen as a local rebellion fighting only in Somalia, but as a group that wants to take over the region and install an Islamic caliphate.”affirmed in May Samira Gaid, of the Hiraal Institute, in an interview with World. Last year, the leader of Chabab, Ahmed Diriye, designated in particular “French and American interests in Djibouti” as priority targets for the group.
The threat of regional expansion is taken seriously by the United States. While Donald Trump had decided to withdraw American troops from Somalia in December 2020, his successor, Joe Biden, acted in May to restore a “small military presence” about 500 special forces personnel in Mogadishu. “The Al-Shabaab pose a serious threat to security and stability in East Africa. We are committed to supporting our partners in the region to deal with it”indicates to World a spokesperson for the US State Department. For its part, Ethiopia announced on 29 July the creation of a ” buffer ” within the Somali territory itself, without this project having yet materialized.
In Somalia, the number of Al-Shabaab attacks dangerously increased in 2022, approaching the level of violence in 2017. “The Al-Shabaab have become Al-Qaeda’s richest and most powerful global franchise, threatening peace and security, as well as humanitarian efforts in Somalia and the Horn of Africa”said Annette Weber, the European Union’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, at the UN Security Council on September 7, calling for an effort ” considerable “ to the international community to fight the Islamist organization.