FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Consumer inflation expectations in the euro zone were revised down in November, ending a long run of hikes linked to soaring food and energy prices, the Bank shows. latest survey on the subject published by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Inflation in the currency bloc for the month of December was estimated last week by Eurostat at 9.2% year on year, after rising 10.1% year on year in November, suggesting the peak is now passed while the ECB aims for a price increase target limited to 2% in the medium term.
In the new ECB survey, median 12-month consumer inflation expectations in the eurozone fell from 5.4% to 5% in November, and three-year-ahead expectations stood at 2.9% vs. 3.0% previously.
The ECB survey was carried out among around 14,000 people in the six largest eurozone countries.
A sign of a wide variety of responses, the average expectation for the coming year came out at 7.3%, well above the median figure.
The ECB itself predicts that its 2% inflation target will not be reached before the second half of 2025. The Frankfurt institute sees a slowdown in price growth to 3.6% in the last quarter of this year .
The improvement in consumer inflation expectations comes at a time when consumers are also less pessimistic about the evolution of the economic situation.
They now anticipate a 2% contraction in eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 12 months from a 2.6% drop indicated in October, according to the average forecast. The median estimate, for its part, remained unchanged.
(Report Balazs Koranyi; French version Claude Chendjou, edited by Blandine Hénault)
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