DECRYPTION – The Asean countries represent a strategic market, also targeted by Xi Jinping’s silk roads.
Brussels
To celebrate the 45th anniversary of their relations, it was in Brussels that the leaders of the European Union and ASEAN (or Anase, in French, Association of Southeast Asian Nations) met met on Wednesday. In an unstable geopolitical context, they affirmed their desire to redouble their cooperation in favor of trade and multilateralism.
This is the first time that a high-level summit has been held between the two regional organizations. A proof of a qualitative leap in the relationship, which has becomestrategicin 2020. Only a few leaders were absent, such as the French president traveling to Doha to support the Blues. Beyond symbolism, it is “opportunity to transform” the desire for rapprochement in a plan “concrete and beneficial for our two regions for decades to come” welcomed the Cambodian Prime Minister (whose country holds the rotating presidency of ASEAN).
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the “renewed interest (from ASEAN for Europe) is linked to a fatigue and despair of being stuck in the middle of the rivalry between the United States and China”, explains Eva Pejsova, researcher at the VUB (Dutch-speaking University of Brussels). This is for them to seek a counterweight to China’s influence in the region, particularly in the South China Sea.
Countering Chinese dependency
“Today there is a battle of offers in the geopolitical arena. We have to offer more”sums up the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. “It is important that we offer a counterbalance to the influence that others exert in the region”, abounds the Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo. For the European economy, the challenge is to counter Chinese dependence by encouraging Asean to play a major role in the supply chains of the Old Continent. These countries are rich in natural resources, whether natural gas or rare materials, such as lithium (especially Indonesia). It is necessary that “reconnect with this particularly dynamic area of the world, on the way to becoming the world’s fifth largest economy in the next four or five years”, says a diplomat. As evidence of European interest, many states, such as Lithuania, have begun to expand their political and economic ties in the region.
This rapprochement will be mainly commercial. Of course, the ties are already strong. With trade of more than 280 billion euros in 2021, EU and Asean are each other’s third largest trading partner. However, the potential isphenomenal» ; “It’s a huge market, very young and very qualified”, points out Eva Pejsova. An EU-ASEAN free trade agreement, stalled for many reasons, is a “common long-term goal“, decides the joint statement. The priority is therefore bilateral agreements, especially since the EU has only signed them with Singapore and Vietnam. “We want more”, insists the President of the European Commission. The Europeans took the opportunity to try to convince their counterparts in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia to create the “good conditions” to resume negotiations.
Today there is a battle of offers in the geopolitical arena. We need to offer more
Josep Borrell, head of European diplomacy
However, this ambition risks being challenged by the new European approach aimed at strengthening the human rights environment criteria for any future trade agreement. To support the efforts of ASEAN, the Union will invest 10 billion euros in the region by 2027, particularly in the field of renewable energies and sustainable agriculture. The promise is accompanied by a fairly detailed list of projects. Announced in 2021, these public funds come from the famous Global Gateway, a European competitor to the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative, the official name of the “new silk roads”. This envelope must have a leverage effect to mobilize private capital. “We are seeing strong demand in the region to diversify their sources of investment and work with reliable partners”analyzes a European official.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine was the other difficult subject of the meeting. Especially during the negotiations to agree on the joint statement. The Europeans wanting to obtain a condemnation of Russia from their Asian partners, who opt not to take sides, nor to apply sanctions (with the exception of Singapore). Finally, in the declaration, these are only “most members” who condemn war, and the text points “different assessments of the situation and sanctions“. The Indonesian President, Joko Widodo, has also called on Europeans to stop trying to impose their ideas, demanding to be treated commensurate with the commercial weight of the region.