Will there really be voters in the polling stations on June 9? Two months before the European elections, the French are more disinterested in the elections than ever. According to an Ifop-Fiducial survey, only 44.5% of voters plan to vote. Clearly, more than one in two voters should not travel this year, during the European elections.
A level of abstention still uncertain
However, despite this extremely low figure, the European elections should be successful for the National Rally. Jordan Bardella’s list is at the top of voting intentions, with almost one in three respondents wishing to vote RN in the election, according to an Ipsos poll published last weekend. In second place, Valérie Hayer, Renaissance candidate, only attracted around 18% of voters.
“It is too early to talk about a level of abstention. The institutions give us a level which would be around 55% next June. Next June 9, we will perhaps be below, perhaps at that level, we will see. But it is not contradictory to have a more widespread populist voting intention and a fairly massive intention to abstain because they are not the same voters,” explains the director general of Fondapol.
A protest movement?
“There is today rather a demobilization of the Macronist electorate, we will say, who can perhaps remobilize, but who today are rather relatively demobilized, which can explain part of the abstention” , continues Dominique Reynié. However, this electorate was very mobilized in 2019, continues the political scientist. This year also remains an exception compared to the last 20 years, because it is the only year where participation in the European elections was increasing.
“But there may also be a combination of protest for some and abstention for others. By this I mean that abstention has become the other major expression of protest,” he concludes.