European elections: Why so many young people voted for the AfD

In the European elections, young people in particular rejected the Greens and voted for the AfD instead. Is this a sign of a shift to the right among young people? Or is the climate issue simply no longer relevant?

It took Olaf Scholz a day to comment on the result of the European elections in Germany at the beginning of this week. “The election result was bad for all three governing parties. No one would be well advised to simply move on to business as usual.” It is not known whether the Chancellor was in shock and therefore did not comment on election night. One thing is clear: the traffic light coalition was punished – also or especially by younger voters.

The 16 to 24 year olds voted very differently than in the 2019 European elections. The AfD gained eleven percentage points, more than in other age groups. The right-wing populists came in at 16 percent, the Union at 17 percent. The Greens lost 23 percentage points among young people – more than in any other age group.

“No hope for a better future”

Wendelin HaagChairman of the German Federal Youth Council, believes that the results should not be overestimated. “Only a small proportion of young people voted for a non-democratic party. We also have to acknowledge that 83 percent of young voters – first-time voters – voted for democratic parties. This is not given enough attention in the debate after the election,” says Haag in the ntv podcast “Learned something again”.

But this small part makes Thomas Koenig Worries. The political scientist from the University of Mannheim predicted in a study that young people tend to favor populist parties, such as the AfD or Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW. One reason for this is that they do not yet have a solid political image, he explains in the podcast: “On the one hand, there is the greater flexibility of young voters to vote for other parties, even extreme parties. Then a certain disappointment with the current situation plays a major role. Young people no longer have any hope of having a better future than their parents.”

Social media also plays a major role, says König, and is “very heavily used by right-wing populist or populist parties in general. There, they can have a greater impact through the emotionality with which they attack others.” This generates likes and attention on Tiktok and Co.

Scandals cannot harm AfD

The AfD has managed to specifically appeal to young people. No other party has really managed to do this well. This is a major concern for many people in Germany. After all, the party is classified by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a suspected right-wing extremist and in three states as a confirmed right-wing extremist.

It seems as if even the various scandals surrounding the two AfD top candidates Maximilian Krah and Peter Bystron did not bother the voters. They still gave their vote to the AfD.

Haag warns against having too high expectations of young voters: “‘You have to vote better than everyone else’ – I would initially reject this expectation. Young people, like any other age group, have the right to vote the way they vote. They do not have to iron out anything that older generations have caused.” In addition, young people live in times of great uncertainty and multiple crises, all this has an impact.

In addition, they are unsettled by the media and public debate, “where unfortunately the AfD manages to convey its narratives more strongly, especially in social media.”

Young voters switch to Volt

In the 2021 federal election, the Greens were still in first place among young voters with 23 percent, closely followed by the FDP with 21 percent. Now in the European elections, only eleven percent of 16- to 24-year-olds have chosen the party.

Although the Greens’ core issue, climate, is not at all unimportant to young people: According to the Sinus Youth Study This year, young people are even thinking more and more about it. For almost 80 percent of young people, environmental and climate protection is an important issue, according to the survey “Future? Ask the youth! – 2023” from the Federal Environment Agency. However, politicians are not doing enough to combat this, the study says.

So why were the Greens unable to score points? The Federal Youth Council suspects that many young voters have switched from the Greens to the pro-European Volt party. “For us, this is not a rejection of the issues that were important to young people five years ago, but rather a shift from the governing party, which is viewed more critically, to an opposition party,” Haag analyzes in the “Learned something again” podcast.

Migration more important than climate

“Smaller parties were very successful with young voters,” says Haag. A large proportion, 28 percent of their votes, went to small and tiny parties, including the pro-European Volt party. Seven percent of 16- to 24-year-olds voted for Volt. Young people therefore accounted for a large share of the total 2.6 percent that Volt received. The share was higher in no other age group.

For political scientist König, Volt’s good performance is the most surprising result of the European elections. “Many, especially in the traffic light government, but also the CDU and CSU, were unsuccessful with their ‘federal election campaign’. They probably underestimated the voters’ desire to know more about Europe.”

In his opinion, the Greens have polarized and deterred people with their heating law. He believes that the issue of climate no longer plays such a big role for the younger generation. “15 and 16 year olds are no longer as green as the previous generation. They have completely different interests. They are very concerned about the issue of migration because they also learn about it in schools.”

Studies say that young people feel little noticed by current politics. Voting for opposition parties such as the CDU and AfD could also be a provocation, says the Political scientist Uwe Jun from the University of Trier. A demarcation from older generations and the traffic light government.