A strategic rapprochement between the US and Russia currently seems highly unlikely. But from the perspective of security experts in Washington, China is the bigger threat. It could become vital for Europe to maintain a credible deterrent without the US.
For a historic moment after the end of the Cold War, the US was the only remaining superpower and it seemed as if it could reorder the globe according to its economic and social model. Word of the “end of history”, the final victory of democratic and free-market systems over autocratic system ideas, made the rounds.
These hopes have not been fulfilled. During the administration of George W. Bush, the USA overstretched its forces. Above all, however, they gambled away a lot of their “soft power” capital, their attraction as a liberal role model, since they themselves did not adhere to the international rules and values that they presented to the rest of the world, often with military emphasis, with their ” hard power”, recommended.
Despite this dubious record, America’s sense of mission remains undiminished – despite failed interventions such as in Afghanistan or Iraq, despite Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib and despite the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, when the American security authorities and military feared a “coup” of the reluctantly departing ruler Donald Trump had to prevent.
Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, continues to strive for America’s unity and role model role. The not-so-United States of America, however, is deeply divided. The Republican Party, which once led the fight against “godless communism,” is bowing to a leader who calls Putin a “genius.” When it comes to resolutely opposing Russian aggression, Trump supporters commend armed insurgents who have attacked the Washington legislature. In addition, Republicans are grinding the right to vote to allow Trump a second term.
For the US, an alliance between Russia and China would be a nightmare
The Republicans, who are still dominated by Trump, and most of whom even the majority of their representatives in Congress do not recognize the newly elected Joe Biden as their legitimate president, agree with the Democrats on almost nothing – unless it goes against China.
America’s turning away from Europe and its “turn to Asia” was already heralded by Donald Trump’s Democratic predecessor Barack Obama. And Obama’s Vice President at the time, Joe Biden, is now pursuing this course all the more resolutely in order to confront rival China, which is challenging Washington’s hegemony in East Asia. America’s claim to maintain an American-style world order despite increasingly scarce resources is likely to tempt the internally weakened world power to neglect Europe’s security interests even more in the future.
Strategically thinking US security experts have long feared that sanctions against Russia, especially those in the energy sector, would harm the US itself because they would force Russia to orient itself even more towards Asia. For world planners in Washington, a solid strategic alliance between Russia and China is a very threatening scenario.
Even today, the USA would no longer be able to win a two-front war, i.e. against Russia in Europe and against China in Asia. That was the fear of American defense officials and military analysts back in 2019. In business games by the Rand Corporation, the largest and most renowned American think tank, in which great power conflicts were simulated, a simultaneous confrontation with Russia and China would have spelled defeat for the USA.
Europe could be sacrificed to a “deal”.
In this respect, even after Putin’s armed conflict in Ukraine, it is quite conceivable that America’s Russia policy will change in the future and thus pose problems for the Europeans again – albeit with completely different types. Analogous to the power-political calculations of the then US security adviser Henry Kissinger, who suggested to President Nixon to seek links with the then weaker China in order to contain the more powerful Soviet Union, it could be advisable today to ensnare Russia in order to help the rising and for the USA to face the increasingly threatening China.
For example, Charles Kupchan, who develops foreign policy ideas at the Council on Foreign Relations and teaches as a professor at Georgetown University, has long been calling for the Biden government to correct its course. Instead of pushing Russia and China together with a morality-based values policy, Biden and his European allies should try, very pragmatically, to lure Russia west. Although this shouldn’t get any easier after Putin’s attack on Ukraine, which violated international law, according to Kupchan, the US has “an impressive track record” of finding common ground even with “unsavory regimes”.
The geopolitician Putin, who is currently being made aware of the inadequacy of his military offensive in Ukraine and who is just as interested in curbing China’s space-consuming activities in Central Asia, could receive further incentives from Washington’s geostrategists, for example by introducing western sanctions – above all those of the American harm the economy itself – after a mutually acceptable peace agreement with the Ukraine, be eased again in order to obtain good Russian behavior in other regions that are more important for America.
Europe as a whole could have an experience that the Eastern European states are already historically familiar with, namely that their own interests are sacrificed to a “deal” with larger powers. Should Donald Trump move into the White House again, this danger would only increase.
Europe must be able to defend itself
In the future, the question of how credible deterrence can be maintained without Washington could become a matter of survival for us. In order to strategically ensure Europe’s security and cohesion, it is important to think ahead today and act courageously. Trust in others is good, one’s own ability to defend oneself is better, could be a modern modification of a Russian proverb for Europe’s states.
It is high time that the Europeans no longer only think about the confidence-building measures against Russia that are still necessary for a European peace order, but also think about their own military capabilities that are independent of the USA – in the conventional as well as in the nuclear field. The goal must be to prevent possible blackmail attempts or even aggression by the Russian leadership.
With China emerging as a military rival to the US and the US increasingly oriented towards Asia, Europe should work towards being able to defend itself. Germany and Europe should therefore no longer indulge in the transatlantic illusion that the “protecting power” USA is helping to ensure the security and prosperity of the Old World. Otherwise they threaten to become collateral damage in the global conflict between the battered world power USA and the up-and-coming China.
dr Josef Braml is USA expert and General Secretary of the German group of the Trilateral Commission think tank. His new book “The Transatlantic Illusion. The New World Order and How We Can Assert Ourselves in It”has just been published by Verlag CHBeck.