JUntil recently, the cause was heard in Macronie: if there was one area in which the president could be proud of his record, it was the economy. End of mass unemployment, return of the tricolor attractiveness to investors, offensive on reindustrialization… Despite the repeated doubts of economists on the validity of a supposed “trickle down” and the regular attacks of the opposition on the rise in inequalities or on purchasing power, Emmanuel Macron could highlight his successes. Even during the crises, the government had been able to “protect” its fellow citizens, we insisted from Bercy to Matignon: the Covid-19 pandemic did not lead to a collapse of the economy or a massive wave of layoffs, and the implementation in place of price shields, at the end of 2021, made it possible to contain individual bills, despite the explosion in energy prices.
But for the past few weeks, things have gone wrong! Recent economic indicators sound a little different, not very encouraging for the rest of the five-year term. In the third quarter, gross domestic product fell (−0.1%), weighed down by the drop in purchasing power and the decline in investments in construction and transport. As for the unemployment rate, it rose slightly again in the third quarter, from 7.2% to 7.4%, and economic institutes anticipate a continuation of the trend in 2024. Even if the agency’s leniency rating of S&P Global Ratings, which did not modify the rating of French debt on 1er December, offered a respite to the executive, the mechanism seems indeed to be seizing up.
Faithful to his software, the Head of State fears more than anything to fall into immobility, and continues to hammer home one of the few concrete objectives of his 2022 program: achieving full employment (around 5 % unemployment). ” Wake up ! »he said in front of SME bosses gathered at the Elysée on November 21, refuting the idea of putting reforms “on pause”.
Weakened executive
But, on the subjects of most concern to the French – purchasing power, rising wages, housing – the government is struggling to print. The immigration law, supposed to facilitate the regularization of people essential to the economy, has become a trap. All this, against the backdrop of a “political fragmentation” – the formula used by the very serious S&P agency, Friday 1er December – which weakens the executive.
“The equation becomes more complicated, especially given the commitments madesummarizes Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions. By setting full employment and a return to below 3% of the public deficit as objectives for 2027, the government faces a double challenge that is extremely difficult to meet. »
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