“Expensive and harmful”: historians expect the war to end in the coming year

“Costly and harmful”
Historians expect the war to end next year

President Putin is “in a war he cannot win,” says British historian Kershaw. Moscow isolated itself by invading Ukraine. Since both opponents of the war are now worn down, Kershaw predicts that the fighting will end in the near future.

British historian Ian Kershaw assumes that the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine will be over next summer. “In the spring we will see whether the Ukrainians, with Western support, are ready for a new offensive that will allow them to push back the attackers. If that is the case, then by spring or summer we could be on the way to one solution or another be,” said the 79-year-old in an interview with the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”. The “current level of attrition” is “difficult for both sides to bear,” said the historian. “That’s why I assume that the war will be over in half a year.”

Kershaw told the newspaper that Russian President Vladimir Putin has put himself in a position he never foresaw. “He is now in a war which he cannot win and which is very costly and damaging.” Now it remains to be seen what condition the armed forces on both sides will be in at the end of this winter. “It will be a very hard winter for Ukraine, but of course also for many Russians.”

The war against the neighboring country also has long-term consequences for Moscow, Kershaw said. “Russia is now isolated, at least in Europe. In that sense, the decision to invade Ukraine was an expensive decision. It will change Europe, but exactly how is not foreseeable,” said the 79-year-old. However, it is already clear: “The war has already forced a new energy policy on us and brought about a recession.”

Kyiv has been on alert for 694 hours this year

When he launched his war of aggression against Ukraine on February 22 this year, Putin set himself the goal of taking Kyiv – and failed. In the past few days, the Russians have intensified their attacks on the capital. Since the beginning of the war, the alarm sirens have blown 638 times in Kyiv. Overall, since the end of February, the state of alarm has been in effect for almost 694 hours, said Kiev’s military administration chief Serhiy Popko. “That’s practically 29 days, almost a whole calendar month, that the city’s citizens spent in shelters and bunkers.”

In total, the capital experienced 52 airstrikes in which 120 people died, including five children. 495 people were injured in the rocket and cruise missile attacks. The attacks damaged more than 600 buildings, Popko said. The critical infrastructure of the capital had been significantly damaged.

“2022 was the worst year in Kiev’s recent history,” Popko said. After the advance of the Russian ground troops on Kyiv was repelled, the enemy went over to the “genocide from the air”. Since the fall, Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s power grid in order to put pressure on the population.

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