Expensive, big, complicated: is Apple developing the wrong iPhones?

The iPhone X should sell worse than expected. Apple is supposedly already placing its hopes on the following devices. But will these be the iPhones that users are waiting for, or is the company developing past needs?

According to an analyst, Wall Street is "in panic mode," writes Business Insider. The reason for this is that Apple is reportedly selling less iPhone X than expected. Several analysts have lowered their expectations, including the best-informed and most influential Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. He reckons with only 18 and 13 million units sold for the current and the following quarter. At the beginning of the year, most analysts expected 20 to 30 million for the first quarter and 15 to 20 million for the second quarter of 2018. Kuo assumes that Apple will completely stop production in the summer.

Goal halved

The star analyst at KGI Securities seems to have hit the mark again. As the Japanese stock exchange newspaper "Nikkei" wrote, Apple has halved its goal of selling 40 million iPhone Xs from January to the end of March to 20 million. The company informed its suppliers of this. The reason for the poor numbers is said to be primarily weak sales in key markets such as Europe, the USA and China.

True Depth camera and Face ID haven't shown everything they can yet.

(Photo: kwe)

Still, Apple is probably nowhere near as bad as some commentators think. On the one hand, according to Canalys figures, the iPhone X was still the most successful smartphone with "only" 29 million units sold in the past quarter – although it did not start until November. In addition, the cheaper iPhone 8 models are probably doing pretty well. Apple will probably maintain its target of 30 million units sold this year, writes "Nikkei". The demand for the older iPhone SE, 6s and 7 models was still high in the past quarter. So Ming-Chi Kuo expects the bottom line that Apple will sell 0.5 percent more iPhones in the first half of the year than in the same period last year.

OLEDs remain expensive

Kuo writes that, among other things, the Chinese bought fewer iPhone Xs because the display seems too small to them due to the noticeable cutout. In addition, users in the Middle Kingdom no longer bought new smartphones as often as they used to. Worldwide, however, the high price of the iPhone X has certainly put off many potential buyers. In Germany, the cheaper model costs 1150 euros. Obviously, fewer people are willing to spend such sums on a smartphone than Apple has hoped.

This is a problem for the manufacturer. According to an analysis by IHS Markit, the OLED display is the most expensive component of the iPhone X at $ 110, the total material value of which is estimated at around $ 370. Because more and more manufacturers are installing OLEDs in their top smartphones, the demand for such screens is increasing. In addition, only Samsung was able to deliver enough displays of the high quality required for the iPhone X. Falling OLED prices are unlikely to occur in the near future, although Apple now has the "The Investor" According to LG Display a second supplier.

You keep growing

Apple iphone SE.jpg

There may be a slightly improved iPhone SE, but none in the new 18: 9 design.

(Photo: Apple)

Because as Kuo writes according to "MacRumors" in his most recent analysis, Apple plans to present two OLED smartphones in the coming autumn: as before, one with a 5.8-inch display and an additional plus model with a powerful 6.5-inch screen. In addition, there is an iPhone with a 6.1-inch LCD. However, Kuo does not see a completely new iPhone SE coming. Apple no longer has any capacity free for its development, he writes. There will probably only be a refresh with a stronger inner workings.

Users who had hoped Apple would finally bring back a smaller iPhone with latest design and technology to the market, will probably be disappointed. Instead, Apple's devices continue to grow and if the company proceeds as before, the best technology will only be available in the Plus model. Asian users may like such large displays, but is that also the case in Europe or the USA? If you ask around in your area, you will likely have many friends and acquaintances who would like to have a little less in their pockets.

Cheaper LCD alternative

Smaller displays will generally no longer be available in the smartphone upper class anytime soon. An Android manufacturer told n-tv.de that the size requests of the Asians are often used as an alibi. In fact, it is hardly possible to accommodate the increasingly complex technology in smaller devices and still find space for a sufficiently large battery. 18: 9 displays that barely have any edges further intensified this effect.

iPhone 8 iPhone 8 Plus Test.jpg

The iPhone 8 Plus could remain on offer as a cheaper alternative with a home button.

(Photo: kwe)

Nor should buyers expect the upcoming OLED iPhones to be cheaper than the iPhone X. Two display suppliers for two models are not enough for this and significant price reductions have never been Apple's strategy anyway. According to Kuo, the current iPhone X should be completely removed from the offer and not linger as a cheaper alternative in the Apple shop.

That leaves the 6.1-inch LCD iPhone. With him, Apple should not only have saved on the display. Among other things, 3D Touch should also be missing and less RAM on board. This means that this iPhone is not as expensive as the new X models, but it is also not really cheap. Kuo expects $ 700 to $ 800 in the US. That's how much the simplest 8-series iPhones cost there. In Germany, the 6.1-inch device is likely to cost 800 to 900 euros.

Always forward, never backward

Perhaps many users with a kiss would do without Face ID and Animojis. they may be shooting a glass back and inductive charging – metal is more stable and a fingerprint sensor in the apple logo was not such a bad idea, right? Perhaps, but Apple has clearly stated that Face ID is the future and iPhone buyers will have to learn to live with glass backs too.

Is Apple thereby evolving past its users? Yes and no. You can't please everyone if you only make two or three different models. Many buyers will miss the home button, but even Apple could not stay true to the old design with 16: 9 screens with a frame that was much too wide. The company decided against a fingerprint sensor under the display or on the back and opted for the completely new Face ID. Some loyal customers don't like that at all, but it won't drive them into the arms of the Android competition in droves either. So far, iPhone users have grumbled, scolded and threatened every major change, but in the end a large majority have participated.

Many have waited

A bigger problem is the prices. The iPhone X has shown that Apple has crossed a pain threshold. It is doubtful whether significantly more users worldwide will be willing to spend a small fortune on an iPhone in the future. But there are still many who can afford it but have not yet struck. There were enough reasons for this, from the delayed start to technical uncertainties. But now they know what to expect, that the technology will work and that the new Xers will be more sophisticated and even better equipped.

The LCD alternative is not exactly cheap either, but it is significantly cheaper than the OLED models. And in contrast to the 8-series iPhones, its design is up to date. Due to the 18: 9 format and Face ID, its size is not that off-putting either. Finally, the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus should remain in the shop as a somewhat cheaper alternative with a home button.

Apple may be developing the wrong iPhones from the perspective of some users, but the company doesn't want to make the masses happy either. Apple won't necessarily sell significantly more next-generation devices, but it will likely earn more anyway. In this respect, the strategy is probably correct. Most of all, Ming-Chi Kuo expects the LCD iPhone to be a success. For 2018, despite the current weakness, he predicts a ten percent growth in iPhone sales. Instead, he sees a drop in sales of the competition or an increase of 5 percent at most. A wrong development looks different.

. (tagsToTranslate) Technologie (t) iPhone (t) iPhone X (t) Apple (t) iPhone 8