Several explosions rock Crimea during the night. According to Ukraine, Russian hypersonic missiles were destroyed at the Dzhankoy railway junction. For Russia, this is a sensitive blow to the pit of the stomach, says security expert Gerhard Mangott in an interview with ntv.de. Ukraine has drones that could permanently disrupt Russia’s supply lines. In his opinion, the attacks are a preparation for Ukraine’s announced spring offensive.
ntv.de: According to official pictures, three days ago Putin set foot in Crimea for the first time since the war of aggression. Now Ukraine is suddenly attacking there. Coincidence?
Gerhard Mangott: I don’t think there is a connection. The Ukrainian attacks on Russian missile transports are related to the timing of the transport and not to Putin’s visit.
Gerhard Mangott is a political scientist specializing in international relations and security research in the post-Soviet space.
It is still unclear which weapons Ukraine used in its attack. Russia talks about drones. What weapons does Ukraine possess that have such range and precision?
Ukraine has home-made drones with sufficient range to attack missile transports in Crimea. Ukraine has used such drones several times over the past 13 months. They are very far-reaching and powerful. But Ukraine also owns drones from foreign supplies. In any case, they are technically capable of attacking targets that are further away.
So you’re assuming the Russian missiles were deliberately hit?
At least that’s what the Ukrainian side claims. Of course, Russia does not confirm this, because it has no interest in certifying Ukraine’s success. However, if the attack was successful, it is probably only because Ukraine received real-time reconnaissance from the US and knew exactly where the target was. This would certainly not have been possible without the cooperation of the United States. I therefore do not believe that the aim of the drone attack was coincidence.
The Russian military supplies Crimea, including missiles for the Black Sea Fleet, via the Dzhankoy railway junction on the peninsula. What does it mean for the Russians if these railroad tracks were destroyed?
This railway line is a very important supply line for Russia, both for troops and for equipment and ammunition. If this railway line were permanently damaged, it would hurt Russia, no question.
There are only two railway lines in Crimea. So would it be possible to permanently destroy these supply lines with targeted attacks?
Basically yes. We do not know which drones were used here with what explosive power and how great the destructive power is. Nevertheless, it is possible that railway lines will be disrupted, creating a huge supply problem for the Russians. In my opinion, the attacks are a strategic goal of the Ukrainian side in preparation for their spring offensive, which is expected in the next few weeks. We’ll see more of that.
What role will Crimea play in Ukraine’s spring offensive?
Initially, there will be no advance on Crimea, but probably on the city of Melitopol. If that succeeds, the Ukrainians can advance further to the coast. The aim would be to cut off the land connection between the Donbass and Crimea and to split the Russian-occupied territories in two.
Would Crimea be mistaken for Russia if Ukraine now starts massively disrupting supply lines?
It would make the task immensely more difficult. But Russia also has other options for defending Crimea militarily. Since 2014 a fortress has been built there, equipped with weapons and ammunition and secured with trenches. Destroying the railway lines alone will not be enough to take Crimea from Russia without major fighting.
How will Russia get its supplies if the railway lines were destroyed?
You can switch to roads and other railway connections, such as the Crimean bridge over the Kerch Strait. An attack on the Crimean Bridge would probably be technically possible, although it is very heavily secured. But it is very difficult and would entail retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian targets, as happened last fall. After the Crimean Bridge attack, Russia began targeted destruction of heat, water and infrastructure in Ukraine. In addition, it would probably be seen by the Russian side as the beginning of a military escalation.
By military escalation do you mean the use of nuclear weapons?
If Crimea were actually endangered, I think it’s possible that the conflict would escalate to nuclear ones after all. The loss of Crimea would be an event that, from a Russian perspective, must never happen. The implications for Russia – strategically, militarily, but also politically – would be immense. Putin would then not be able to stay in power. For him that would be a disastrous war defeat. Therefore, one has to ask oneself whether the Ukrainian government’s war aim of recapturing Crimea is really justifiable, or whether Ukraine should not be held back by its western allies and arms donors.
The conclusion from this would be that the war can only end with the renunciation of Crimea. At the same time, Ukraine would still be at risk of being attacked by Russia from Crimea.
That’s the counter-argument. There are two camps on this question: those who say that Russia’s nuclear threats are a bluff and are only intended to spread fear and insecurity in the West so that Russia can keep Crimea. While that’s all correct, I still believe that there is a residual risk of a nuclear escalation and that the consequences of a nuclear use would be so serious that it is too dangerous to risk it.
What will happen if the Ukrainian counteroffensive is successful? Stop at the border with Crimea and don’t attack?
I don’t think Ukraine would be willing to stop at Crimea. In the background, however, there will be pressure from some Western countries not to cross a certain line. However, the West is divided on this issue. The Nordic, Baltic and Eastern European countries support Ukraine’s maximum war aim of conquering Crimea. In the US, there is uncertainty as to whether this should really happen, as in some countries in Western Europe. In the end it will be a political decision, perhaps made in Kyiv, but perhaps elsewhere.
Vivian Micks spoke to Gerhard Mangott