Extension of compulsory service is only a first step

Taiwan extends compulsory military service for young men from four to 12 months. Given the constant threats from Beijing, this is less surprising than the fact that compulsory military service has been so short. For comparison: In South Korea, which faces a similar existential threat as Taiwan, young men have to serve at least 18 months.

As if to underscore that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s decision was overdue, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army had 71 aircraft and 7 warships deployed around Taiwan on Christmas Day. The Chinese threat is working: the polls speak for themselves a majority of Taiwanese in favor of an extension of compulsory military service.

Lessons learned from the Ukraine war

The decision of the Taiwanese government makes it clear that the signs of the times have been recognized: lessons have been learned from Russia’s war against Ukraine, wrote the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense on Twitter. Good preparation can prevent wars.

But this preparation has not gone very far so far. Anyone who speaks to young men who have completed the compulsory service hears again and again that they feel badly trained. They say in confidence that they hardly know how to use a gun, they only fired a few shots in basic training. Many perceive the service as a waste of time.

Currently, Taiwan has 165,000 active-duty men and women. Ten years ago it was 275,000. The extension of compulsory service will increase this number somewhat. But in the longer term, Taiwan’s military faces a major problem: the birth rate is low and there are fewer and fewer young people. Last year, 154,000 children were born on the island – in 2035, according to forecasts, there will be 20,000 fewer. The pressure that soldiers – women make up only 15% of the personnel in the armed forces – to deploy as sensibly and efficiently as possible is constantly growing.

In future, basic training will last eight weeks instead of five. The military leadership promises that the quality of training should be improved. So training units of the American armed forces are to be taken over. It is explicitly announced that the shooting training will be greatly expanded. These are important and overdue steps.

It is also important how the conscripts are integrated into the overall defense. With the announcement of the extension of compulsory military service, President Tsai also presented a reorganization of national defense. The combat troops will be made up of professional soldiers who will voluntarily serve and enlist for longer periods of time. The conscripts are mainly responsible for the protection of important infrastructure in the country. There are also reservists and civil defense.

Taiwan’s military reforms are far too late

In view of the almost daily threats from Beijing and China’s rapid armament, these reforms come much too late. The period of relaxation in relations with the mainland during Ma Ying-jeou’s presidency (2008-2016) had a long-lasting effect. The reduction of compulsory service to four months was not implemented until 2013.

It took a while for Taiwan to come to the conclusion that this position was no longer tenable in the face of a more aggressive China led by Xi Jinping. Taiwan has long been used to its neighbor’s saber-rattling. As a result, the danger was downplayed and national defense was neglected. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has now shown that one has to prepare for the worst in order to hopefully be able to hold it off. The extension of compulsory service is therefore logical, but not sufficient on its own.