Faced with inflation, the IMF encourages African governments to support households

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It is “a shock that adds to a shock”, summarizes Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As the Covid-19 pandemic begins to ebb, African economies are bearing the brunt of the consequences of the war in Ukraine. The prices of energy and food products have soared since the start of the Russian offensive on February 24, aggravating the inflationary tensions that were already affecting most African countries. And according to the economic outlook published on Thursday 28 April by the IMF, this “Inflation is expected to remain high in the region in 2022, at 12.2%, then gradually decline to reach 9.6% in 2023”.

Sub-Saharan Africa was given only a brief respite. “At the end of 2021, there was a very strong momentum of economic recovery in the region”, details the director of the report, Papa N’Diaye, division chief in the African department of the IMF: “Growth forecasts have been revised upwards, from 3.7% to 4.5%. But this momentum was stopped dead. Only 3.8% growth is forecast for 2022. With, of course, great heterogeneity between countries. »

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Of the 45 states that make up sub-Saharan Africa, eight are oil exporters and can hope to turn the increase in fuel prices into a financial windfall. The budgetary revenues for 2022 of the countries concerned, Nigeria and Angola in the lead, have been revised upwards by 2.1 points by the IMF. But the other 37 will bear the brunt of the negative consequences of this increase.

“All populations will suffer, warns the economist. And without well-established social safety nets, we can expect worsening poverty, inequality and social tensions, with the risk of political instability. That’s what worries us. »

The example of Togo

Usually reluctant to inject public funds, the IMF for once urges governments to protect the most vulnerable households with targeted aid. “We must reallocate certain existing budget items for countries that have no fiscal room for maneuver, concedes Papa N’Diaye. Or resort to subsidies, as was the case in Togo. »

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