Later, tomorrow, in a few weeks or never. Such is today the flexible position of the White House on the threat of a Russian military operation in Ukraine. For almost three months, through regular leaks in the press and public declarations, Washington has not ceased to sound the alarm about the preparations.
On February 2, the administration announced that it would no longer use the word “imminent” to describe this danger. “I think it sent a message that we didn’t intend to send, explained spokesperson Jen Psaki, one that we knew Putin had made up his mind. » This sudden semantic correction, which responded to some irritation from the Ukrainian authorities, does not change the American two-track strategy, adopted since the beginning of November 2021.
The first consists in preparing strong economic sanctions upstream, in consultation with the allies, to hit Russia if its tanks cross the border, a hypothesis still very probable according to many experts. The second, unusual and delicate, is aggressive communication about Russian intentions, not just actions. A kind of preventive denunciation for the good cause – to avoid a war – but which also raises questions about this supposed exercise in transparency. Doesn’t the United States indulge in disinformation, for lack of advanced evidence, in order to disrupt Moscow’s own calculations?
The obvious must be recalled. Russia alone sparked a security crisis in Europe by massing more than 120,000 troops along the Ukrainian border. This time, no clandestine or denied special operation (as in 2014), but a way of negotiating by intimidation, by pointing at your interlocutor.
Moscow then proposes to resolve this same crisis by imposing conditions impossible to satisfy on NATO and the United States. The Kremlin knows that no Western country will sacrifice a single soldier in defense of Kiev. Already, Vladimir Putin is at the center of the game and identifies the opponent’s vulnerabilities. The stakes seem enormous, even beyond the integrity of a country and continental security.
The Mirror of Russian Methods
On February 7, Joe Biden urged American nationals present in Ukraine to leave the country. It would be “wise”estimated the president, who repeated this alert in an interview with NBC on Thursday. “Things could quickly get carried away”, he said. Is it the trauma of the chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan that motivates these remarks? In reality, this American dramatization is a constant political choice, made from the beginning of November 2021, arousing reservations behind the scenes in Europe, and sometimes imposing a strange mirror effect, compared to the Russian methods already proven.
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