THEDoes the United States have to look like Europe? In the coming weeks, Joe Biden will play his presidency on this issue. At 78, he has the ambition to go down in history as one of the great reformers of his country. He wants to be in the tradition of two of his Democratic predecessors who changed the profile of the United States, Franklin Roosevelt (1933-1945) and Lyndon Johnson (1963-1969). Not won in advance.
The battle will be tough, on a double level: political and ideological. Because it is an idea of America that is at stake, something profound that goes far beyond a dispute over the level of the country’s public debt (nearly 100% of GDP) or over the macroeconomic relevance of the Biden program.
By October 31, Congress must vote definitively on two major projects that carry the president’s ambition. The first – $ 1,200 billion (€ 1,035 billion) – aims to modernize crumbling infrastructure: bridges, ports, roads and airports. We know these electric wires that hang in the middle of New York; those rutted roads; these port installations for a 1950s thriller decor, basically everything that gives the country its strange profile of futuristic decor mixed with third world decay.
The second project – initially, 3.5 trillion dollars – has a dual objective over ten years: a considerable strengthening of the welfare state and the fight against global warming. “The transformative effect of the United States”, says political scientist Nicole Bacharan, will be indisputable. If the president is successful, the Democrats will run with “A big legislative assessment” in the mid-term elections in November 2022, elections generally unfavorable to the party that holds the White House.
Democrats Divided
The Biden majority is tiny: one voice, that of the vice-president, Kamala Harris, who comes to the Senate to decide between the 50 elected Democrats from their 50 Republican colleagues; five votes in the House of Representatives (out of 435 seats). But Democrats are divided (it’s a habit). The left of the party is willing to vote for the “infrastructure package” – popular and approved by some Republicans – if the “social state package” also passes. However, this divides the 50 Democratic senators, whose unanimity is required, while their Republican colleagues see it as a socializing madness.
The White House is negotiating an agreement – downward from its initial project – which can win the unanimity of the 50 Democratic senators. The stake is political. If the Democrats do not agree, they will have shown that they are not a government majority. They will undoubtedly suffer a defeat in the midterm elections in November 2022. “So this will greatly increase the chance of seeing Donald Trump win the presidential election of November 2024”, writes David Brooks, one of the editorial writers of New York Times.
You have 48.79% of this article to read. The rest is for subscribers only.