The European car industry is having a very dark September. The results of sales country by country are linked and resemble each other: sudden drops, unprecedented, surprising even. It started with France, Friday 1er October. New passenger car registrations in France posted a drop of 20.5% for the month of September compared to the same period of 2020, i.e. the fourth decline in a row, after -15% in August, -35 % in July, – 15% in June.
Then it was the turn of Germany, the leading European car market, with data published on Tuesday, October 5. This time around, sales tumbled 25.7% in September. Less than 200,000 new vehicles were sold last month across the Rhine, unheard of in thirty years. And the other large European countries are not left out: – 16% in Spain, – 11% in Poland, – 33% in Italy, – 34% in the United Kingdom, etc.
The fall is severe but it is also unexpected, as it compares to a historically low year 2020. Cumulatively since January, the French automobile industry is at + 8% and could end the year at + 3% compared to a year 2020 which had fallen to levels of the 1970s. As for the German market, observers are expect it to end up in the red. “We estimate that 13 million vehicles will be registered in Europe in 2021, says José Baghdad, head of the automotive sector at PwC France and the Maghreb. In 2019, the last year excluding the crisis, the market stood at 16 million cars. It didn’t go over 12 million last year. “
“Usually, the automotive market multiplies the change in GDP by 3, explains Eric Champarnaud, co-founder and director of C-Ways, a marketing consulting company specializing in the automotive industry. This happened in 2020. French GDP fell by 8%, the French car market by 25%. This year, with growth of 6%, we could have expected a market of + 18% and almost 2 million vehicles sold. In fact, we estimate that 1.7 million new cars will be registered in 2021 in France. Maybe a little less. ”
Longer delivery times
What happens to the automobile market for having lost its compass in this way? First – and above all – an unprecedented supply crisis. “The shortage of semiconductors but also of raw materials – plastics, steels – worsened further in September, explains Laurent Petizon, managing director for France of the consulting company AlixPartners. Globally, this chip crisis will prevent the manufacture of 8 to 9 million vehicles. “
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