Family day
Families will change significantly in the future
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Large family, classic two-child family, patchwork, single parents: family models are more diverse than ever today. According to forecasts, families will continue to change significantly. For Family Day, we dare to take a look into the future.
Families provide support. People with children in the household are also happier overall than people without children of their own, and for most people, family represents something positive, even if they live it very differently. These are the results of the 2024 family report from the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs. Nevertheless, the number of people living in a family unit is declining.
Family, a discontinued model?
Big differences between the federal states, city and country
Most families, around 53 percent, lived in Baden-Württemberg, while in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania only around 43 percent of the population lived in a family unit. While it is hardly surprising that more families live in rural areas than in big cities, it is surprising that the gap here is narrowing. In 2005, in small communities with up to 5,000 inhabitants, almost two thirds of the population lived in families, but in 2023 this figure was only 52 percent. In large cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, however, the proportion of families increased slightly – from just under 45 percent in 2005 to 46 percent in 2023.
This is how families will develop in the future
A study by the Max Planck Society recently examined how family structures will change worldwide by 2100. The research group with scientists from Rostock, Amsterdam and Buenos Aires came to the conclusion that the number of relatives a person has is expected to decrease by more than 35 percent in the near future. At the same time, the structure of families is changing. The number of cousins, nieces, nephews and grandchildren will decrease significantly, while the number of great-grandparents and grandparents will increase significantly.
“We expect the total number of families to decline permanently in all regions of the world.”says Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, who is head of the research group on inequalities in kinship relationships at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock. The largest decline is expected in South America and the Caribbean. In 1950, a 65-year-old woman there would have had an average of 56 living relatives, while according to the calculations she would probably only have 18.3 relatives in 2095. That represents a decline of 67 percent.
Since families in this country are already comparatively small, the changes will not be quite as drastic. The research team predicts a decline of around 36 percent for Europe and North America. The number of relatives of a 65-year-old woman would decrease from an average of 25 relatives in 1950 to around 15.9 relatives in 2095. Family sizes worldwide will become increasingly similar by 2095, according to the study’s findings.
The consequences
Monitoring changes in family sizes and relationships is particularly necessary in view of the aging of the population. While the number of aging people is increasing, births are decreasing. The result: Fewer younger people have to pay for many older ones. “Let’s take the case of grandparents and great-grandparents, who will probably be available in larger numbers in the future due to structural changes in families. While this could theoretically help to ease the burden on parents when it comes to childcare, these (great-)grandparents could In reality, you yourself will need care.” That is why investing in social support systems is of great importance, especially because a large part of the world’s population currently does not have access to sophisticated social support systems. Accordingly, these people are dependent on the care and support of their relatives and this will probably continue to be the case in the future.
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Max Planck Society, BMFSFJ