Heavy fighting between the Congolese army and the M23 militia is driving large sections of the population to flee. The neighboring countries of Rwanda and Uganda are also pursuing their interests in the region, which is rich in raw materials.
The population of entire villages in the Goma region is on the run these days (picture from May 24).
When the border barrier in Bunagana goes up at eight o’clock, soft footsteps mix with the chirping of the birds. Hundreds crossed the border from Congo-Kinshasa to Uganda without speaking this morning: a young woman with her two children wrapped around her back and stomach; an elderly gentleman carrying a rolled mattress on his head; a girl trying to hide a machine gun under her red XL sweater; a boy with seven goats, whose snouts he tied shut so that they would not make a sound.
They all have one goal this morning – to get away from the fighting between the Congolese army and the rebel group M23 (March 23 Movement). They leave villages between the eastern Congolese city of Goma and the border town of Bunagana.
Since March, up to 500 refugees have been pouring into the south-western Ugandan district of Kisoro every day. There, along with an estimated 17,000 refugees, they are waiting for the situation in Congo-Kinshasa to calm down so they can return home.
Déjà vu in eastern Congo-Kinshasa
The M23 rebels are currently conducting their strongest offensive since the last major uprising ten years ago. At that time, the militia managed to conquer large parts of eastern Congo-Kinshasa. In November 2012, they even occupied Goma for ten days – a disgrace to the international community, which had previously invested billions of francs in the UN peacekeeping mission and the Congolese state-building.
Now much seems like déjà vu: In the past few weeks, the M23, under the leadership of General Sultani Makenga, who once deserted the Congolese military, managed to take positions that are only 20 kilometers away from Goma. Local officials say that the main military base in North Kivu province was briefly seized by the militia. In addition, a UN helicopter crashed in the combat zone, killing eight UN peacekeepers.
Congolese soldiers watch as the local population flees towards Uganda.
When it was formed in 2012, the M23 led a series of ethnic Tutsi-led uprisings against Congolese forces. The M23 and its predecessor groups claim to defend Congolese Tutsi interests, particularly against ethnic Hutu militias such as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). The FDLR was founded by Hutus who fled Rwanda to Congo after being involved in the 1994 genocide there.
In 2013, the Congolese military and UN blue helmets succeeded in defeating around a thousand M23 rebels at the time. The militia retreated across the border into Uganda and Rwanda, from where they began negotiating with Congo’s government. Regional leaders brokered a peace deal that would integrate M23 militias into the Congolese army and allow the M23 leadership to form a political party. This agreement, signed in Nairobi, has not yet been implemented by the Congolese government.
The President is under pressure
Why are the M23 rebels taking up arms again now? Experts suspect that the militia knows how to take advantage of the political climate in the region. The Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi is currently under a lot of pressure. Before the 2023 election, he must fulfill an old campaign promise: peace and stability for eastern Congo. This raises hopes that the economy in this resource-rich area will be boosted.
To get closer to peace in eastern Congo, Tshisekedi imposed martial law on two eastern Congolese provinces in May 2021. The military has ruled there ever since and is trying to subdue around a hundred regional rebel groups. The Ugandan military has also been supporting the fight against one of these militias since November. Nevertheless, the record is bad. There are massacres and attacks against the population in the region almost every day.
Potential regional conflict
The standoff between the M23 militia and the Congolese government has the potential to escalate into a conflict with eastern neighbors, particularly Rwanda and Uganda. Both countries have long histories of military intervention in Congo. In 1996 and 1998, for example, they invaded eastern Congo on the grounds that they were defending themselves against local militias. Although the last of these wars ended with a peace treaty in 2003, the Congolese government, UN investigators and independent experts have in recent years accused both Rwanda and Uganda of supporting militias in Congo, including the M23. The Congolese government claims that this support is aimed at preserving geopolitical clout and profiting from the region’s natural resources. Uganda and Rwanda deny these allegations.
Congolese soldiers in the border area with Rwanda.
The Congolese government therefore looked to Rwanda with concern when President Paul Kagame hinted in a speech in February that the Rwandan armed forces, like those of Uganda, might have to intervene in eastern Congo because of the threat posed by the Hutu militia FDLR. Then, last Wednesday, the Congolese government accused Rwanda of backing the M23’s recent offensive, citing the rebels’ heavy firepower as evidence of outside support. Rwanda rejected this statement and described the fighting as an inner-Congolese conflict.
Since then, the situation has continued to escalate, and all approaches between Rwanda and Congo that were once celebrated have been torpedoed within days: the Congolese government has summoned the ambassador from Rwanda and revoked landing permission for the planes of the state airline RwandAir. For his part, the Congolese government spokesman declared the M23 militia a terrorist organization and had them excluded from peace talks.
So it currently seems as if President Tshisekedi’s promise of peace is getting a little further into the distance with each passing day.