Tensions were at their height in eastern Ukraine on Saturday February 19. Fears of a Russian invasion are growing as ceasefire violations on the eastern Ukrainian front soar “spectacular”according to observers, and that Moscow conducted exercises involving the firing of heavy missiles.
The United States still accuses Moscow, which has massed tens of thousands of troops near Ukraine’s eastern borders, of preparing to attack its neighbor. More than 40% of the 150,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders are now in attack position, a Pentagon official said on Friday. “A war threatens Europe again. And the risk is anything but averted”also warned German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Saturday.
In this context, France and Germany have recommended that their nationals leave Ukraine and call on those in the areas most exposed to the risk of war in the east of the country to move away. ” without delay “.
Multiplication of clashes between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists
On the front in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces and pro-Russian separatists accused each other on Saturday of new serious ceasefire violations. Kiev announced that two of its soldiers had been killed during these clashes, the first deaths among the Ukrainian military for more than a month.
Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said on Saturday that they had observed a “dramatic increase” ceasefire violations, for a total of 870 on Friday. According to them, the number of armed incidents on the front line is now the same as before July 2020, the date of an agreement to strengthen the ceasefire.
The separatists of the “people’s republic of Donetsk” (self-proclaimed pro-Russian state in 2014), who accuse Kiev of wanting to take back their territory, described the situation as “criticism” and announced a “general mobilization”, as do their neighbors in the “People’s Republic of Luhansk”. The day before, they had ordered the evacuation of civilians to neighboring Russia and nearly 20,000 people left these territories on Saturday, according to local officials.
Mortar shells exploded on Saturday near Denys Monastyrsky, the Ukrainian interior minister, during his trip to the front line in the east of the country. The incident, which did not cause any injuries, took place near the village of Novolouhanske, in the Donetsk Territory, on the front line with the Russian-backed separatists, where the minister and Ukrainian MPs were are rendered.
Moscow also announced on Saturday the opening of an investigation after the report, in the media, of a Ukrainian shot that fell in Russian territory, near the Ukrainian border, without causing damage or victims.
Russian missile exercises and American alerts
Russian President Vladimir Putin personally supervised drills on Saturday “strategic” with missile fire “hypersonic”. The head of the Kremlin had previously called these new weapons “invincible” and claimed that she could carry nuclear charges.
“The main objective of the exercises is to train the strategic offensive forces to inflict a guaranteed defeat on the enemy”Russian Chief of Staff Valeri Guerassimov said during a meeting by videoconference, where Mr. Putin appeared alongside his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko. “The planned objectives (…) were fully accomplished, all the missiles hit the set targets”the Kremlin said in a statement, adding that these maneuvers involved Tu-95 bombers and submarines.
In reaction to this new show of force, the United States reiterated its alerts. US Vice President Kamala Harris has raised the threat of a NATO buildup in Eastern Europe in the event of a Russian attack and warned Moscow of economic sanctions “hard and fast”.
The Russians, who have massed 150,000 soldiers on the borders of Ukraine, “are deploying and preparing to strike”, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Saturday during a visit to Lithuania. According to him, the soldiers of Moscow “move to the right positions to be able to carry out an attack”. The day before, the American president, Joe Biden, declared himself “convinced” that Vladimir Putin had decided to invade Ukraine. While affirming that the multiplication of clashes aimed to create a “false rationale” to launch an offensive, however, he left the door open to dialogue.
Germany and Ukraine, however, have distanced themselves from the very alarmist statements of American officials. “In crisis situations, the worst thing is to assume or try to guess” what will happen, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in Munich, recalling that “we don’t know if an attack has already been decided.” “We don’t think we should panic”added a little later the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in front of an audience of diplomats and experts from around the world.
Kiev calls on the West to support the Ukrainian “shield”
“For eight years, Ukraine has been a shield. For eight years, Ukraine has held back one of the largest armies in the world which is massed at our borders and not at those” of the European Union (EU), Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky launched to his Western allies during the security conference in Munich, Germany. He also called on them to cease all political “appeasement” with Moscow.
While Ukraine’s NATO membership is a red line for Russia, Zelensky also demanded a timetable on Saturday ” clear “ for the entry of his country into the institution. Faced with Russia, the West should “support Ukraine and its defense capabilities”, he said. The Kremlin continues to deny any intention to attack Ukraine but conditions de-escalation on “guarantees” for its security, such as the withdrawal from Eastern Europe of the military infrastructure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the assurance that Ukraine will never join the Atlantic Alliance – demands that are unacceptable to Westerners.
In Munich, Jens Stoltenberg reaffirmed the commitment “unwavering” members of NATO, of which he is the Secretary General, to protect each other. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, for his part, called on the allies to “unity”emphasizing the “shock” for the world that an invasion would represent. French President Emmanuel Macron is due to speak on the phone Sunday at 11 a.m. with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to try “again to avoid the worst”said the Elysée.