There is currently no majority in the Federal Parliament for a tax cut on petrol and heating oil. After the change of course in the middle group, there could now be a majority for special payments from the federal government to pensioners and health insurance customers.
According to a left-centre alliance, pensions should rise.
The prices of petrol and heating oil have risen massively since the beginning of the year. The parties from left to right quickly tried to use the surge in energy prices for their own purposes. The motto: “Relief for citizens”. It was not about relief, but about redistribution, but relief sounds much better. Demands came from the left for greater reductions in health insurance premiums and higher pensions, and from the right came demands for a reduction in taxes on fossil fuels. In March, the three major bourgeois parties announced initiatives, for example with regard to mineral oil tax and value added tax.
Nothing came of it. Because the presumed civil way turned out to be essentially only the way of the SVP. This week, for example, the National Council and the Council of States clearly rejected a bundle of proposals for tax cuts to compensate for the rise in the price of petrol and heating oil. No sooner has the attempt from the right failed than the attempt from the left becomes more concrete. And this one seems to have a better chance because the middle has changed course and joined forces with the SP.
pensions and health insurance
Both parties announced on Friday that they had submitted proposals for an extraordinary session (again) to be held during the upcoming autumn session of parliament to cushion the rise in inflation. One initiative calls for an urgent federal decision to increase the federal contribution to reducing health insurance premiums by 30 percent once for 2023. This corresponds to an increase of CHF 800 to 900 million.
The second initiative calls for an extraordinary adjustment of pensions (AHV, IV, supplementary benefits, bridging benefits) so that the full increase in prices according to the consumer price index is compensated for by the beginning of 2023 at the latest. In addition, the Federal Council would have to present a concept so that in the future pensions would be increased “regularly” if annual inflation was over 2 percent.
On average over the long term, AHV pensions are rising faster than prices: the regular adjustment is based on a mixed index that represents the average of inflation and cost of living. In the last ten, twenty and even more years, wages have risen much faster than prices; this applies not only to high wages, but also to medium and low wages. Since this is unlikely to be the case this year due to the increased inflation, the mixed index is suddenly no longer valid – according to the motto “we win with heads, the others lose with tails”.
The ordinary pension adjustment based on the mixed index has so far taken place every two years; if inflation exceeds 4 percent within a year, a faster adjustment is planned.
Before a sharp increase in premiums
Such concerns are nothing new on the left. But why has the middle changed course? It has been noticed that focusing on petrol prices is not enough and that the topic should be tackled more broadly, says Valais National Councilor Philipp Bregy, head of the Mitte federal parliamentarian. Among other things, he refers to the expected increase in health insurance premiums for 2023 of 5 to 10 percent.
The coming premium increase is likely to be based to a large extent on pent-up demand. From 2018 to 2022, the average premium only increased by a total of 1.3 percent – which corresponded to an average annual increase of 0.3 percent. In addition, premium increases are typically not due to price increases, but to increased consumption; in the last 25 years, on average, more than 90 percent of the premium increases were due to increased consumption. Compensation payments for the additional costs resulting from additional consumption have nothing to do with “maintaining purchasing power”.
A left/centre alliance is basically capable of winning a majority in parliament. But is the middle group closed here? Philipp Bregy does not rule out the possibility that there are dissenters, but no dissenting opinions were expressed during the discussion at the parliamentary group meeting about the initiatives to maintain purchasing power.
Above all, the Council of States could be a significant hurdle for the announced advances. But the state blessings demanded seem to have a chance of winning a majority in the current political climate in favor of state comprehensive insurance against every hardship in life.
For the case of falls
Despite sharp increases in energy prices, nothing dramatic has happened so far on the inflation front in historical comparison: the average annual inflation since 1950 was 2.2 percent, in May 2022 the consumer price index was 2.9 percent higher than a year earlier, the National Bank this week for Annual inflation forecast at 2.8 percent in 2022 and 1.9 percent inflation in 2023. So why the political activism? In contrast to the National Bank, one expects that inflation will continue to rise significantly, says the center representative Bregy. In addition, in view of the length of parliamentary procedures, action must be taken at an early stage.