Fewer imports from Russia
EU plans threaten gas supplies to industry
04/30/2022, 12:13 p.m
In response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the EU wants to cut gas imports from Russia by two-thirds by the end of the year. At the same time, however, the gas storage tanks should be well filled in winter. Calculations by researchers show that this would hit the industry massively.
According to a report, the European Union’s (EU) goals of reducing its natural gas imports from Russia and at the same time significantly filling up the storage facilities by the winter can only be achieved if Europe’s industry does not use gas for weeks. A calculation model by Forschungszentrum Jülich shows that more than 300 terawatt hours of natural gas (around 30 million cubic meters) would have to be saved across Europe this year in order to fulfill an EU plan presented at the beginning of March, reports the “Spiegel”. This amount corresponds to about a third of the annual consumption of the whole of Germany.
EU Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans had stated that the EU member states could forego two-thirds of their gas supplies from Russia by the end of the year and replace them from other sources. At the same time, the states should fill their storage facilities to at least 80 percent of the maximum capacity by November – in order to get through the next winter without Russian gas if necessary.
According to the model calculations of the Jülich Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis, both goals can only be achieved with significant closures of industry, as the “Spiegel” further reported. As a result, all steel mills, chemical plants or cement plants in the EU would have to be shut off from gas by the end of July – and gas-fired power plants for almost the whole of July. This is the only way to achieve the EU’s interim target of filling 63 percent of the storage tanks by August 1, according to the “Spiegel” model calculations by the Jülich Institute.
Restrictions for industry unavoidable
In October, further caps would therefore be necessary for the industry to reach the 80 percent level by November 1st. All of this applies even under the optimistic assumption that imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas from other countries could again be increased significantly. “If the storage tanks are to be filled according to the planned specifications and at the same time deliveries from Russia are to be cut so severely, this will only be possible with significant restrictions for industry and power plants,” said Jochen Linßen, professor at Forschungszentrum Jülich, the “Spiegel”.
The German gas emergency plan stipulates that customers such as private households or social services such as hospitals must be given priority. Savings could therefore only be made by companies that need gas for their production or as fuel for power plants. Business representatives are calling for private end users to be switched off if necessary. EON supervisory board chairman Karl-Ludwig Kley demands, for example, that the industry must be given priority.