Fighter jets for Ukraine may have seemed taboo, but in fact they are a logical step. This does not mean that the West will enter the war, even if Russian propaganda portrays it that way.
It is the first time since the start of Russia’s major invasion of Ukraine that a NATO country has officially delivered fighter jets to the invaded country, and it is fitting that Poland is taking the step. The Polish government has repeatedly shown that it can correctly assess the danger posed to Europe by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. She led the way and put pressure on when others, including Germany, hesitated.
Why it’s the first official The military expert Gustav Gressel explained a few weeks ago that some states in Europe had sorted out the MiG-29 and given the remaining spare parts to the Ukraine, which in turn were assembled into aircraft there, he told ntv.de. “As a result, we didn’t deliver anything, but the Ukrainian Air Force now operates more MiG-29 fighter jets than it ever had.”
Warplanes are not entry into war
At first glance, the delivery of fighter jets seems like a massive escalation, especially against the background of statements by the Chancellor. In January, when asked about the delivery of fighter jets, Olaf Scholz said that he found the debate “idiosyncratic”, he warned of an overbidding competition and advocated that “factual issues, rational considerations” should be at stake. Scholz then recalled that he, like US President Joe Biden, had rejected “No Fly Zones” and the deployment of ground troops at the beginning of the war.
Scholz thus put the delivery of fighter jets on the same level as NATO’s immediate entry into the war. That was and is absurd. “If we give Ukraine weapons, whether it’s helmets, tanks or planes, we support them in accordance with international law,” says Christoph Heusgen, head of the Munich Security Conference. NATO would only cross a red line by enforcing a flight ban or deploying ground troops.
Nevertheless, both Scholz’s position and that of the Polish government can be correct. The West’s policy on arms deliveries continues to be that NATO must never become a party to the war. But that shouldn’t mean giving in to every threat from Moscow, because the rulers in the Kremlin should see that as an invitation to annex more countries. Especially since Vladimir Putin and his regime have long announced that they are waging war against the “collective West.”
A balancing act that is unsatisfactory for Ukraine
The idea behind the arms sales to Ukraine is only partly to enable the country to defend itself as well as possible. The West’s other, less clearly formulated consideration is to give Russia a motive to end the war. For this, Russia does not have to be “defeated”, but merely withdraw its troops. What Putin is not to be given is an excuse to escalate his murderous war even further, possibly even nuclear.
It is a balancing act that is unsatisfactory from Ukraine’s point of view. Her concern is to fend off an aggressor who has nothing else in mind than the total annihilation of her country. Militarily it is clear that fighter jets would be important for this. They could support anti-aircraft defenses as well as offensives. For both purposes, they are significantly more mobile than multiple rocket launchers or ground-based anti-aircraft systems. According to estimates by Ukrainian military experts, even the “Kinzhal”-class hypersonic missiles could be intercepted by fighter planes – although more likely by Western jets.
Today’s signal fits exactly what Scholz always says: the West stands by Ukraine and will help her for as long as necessary. Ultimately, this means that one day western warplanes can also be delivered to Ukraine. The fact that the chancellor has generally ruled out the delivery of fighter jets is not a problem: the Bundeswehr has not had its own MiGs for years, the last ones were handed over to Poland in 2002. And the Tornado is less suitable than, for example, US aircraft of the type F-16 Fighting Falcon and F-18 Super Hornet, on which Ukrainian pilots are already training: The Tornado is a very old machine that has already had many flight hours under its belt, said military expert Gressel.
Germany is fine
In addition, all other countries in Europe have already sorted out the tornado, so that no coalition for delivery could be formed. “The Tornado is not a leopard in the air,” said Gressel, referring to the main battle tank that Scholz did not want to deliver for a long time. So when it comes to the fighter jet question, Germany is in the clear. It is still unclear whether the most recent Polish decision was made with or without consulting the western partners: If the fighter jets are MiGs from old GDR stocks, Poland must ask the federal government for permission before passing the machines on.
Apparently she didn’t do that, at least Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was surprised on the sidelines of a visit to the troops near Magdeburg. What is clear, however, is that Poland has come to the conclusion that the delivery of MiGs is an escalation step that is now possible. Shortly after the Russian attack on Ukraine, the government in Warsaw had been thinking aloud about supplying fighter jets to the neighboring country. The US stopped them at the time. Today, the delivery fits in with the West’s previous approach: not everything at once, but one after the other. The temperature is slowly being turned up, so to speak, on the one hand not to corner Putin, but on the other hand to make it absolutely clear to him that he will not succeed.
Sure, one can assess the situation differently than the Polish government does. Neither is risk-free: neither the delivery of the combat aircraft nor the refusal to do so. This also applies in principle to the question of whether the West should support Ukraine with weapons. There is no way without risk here, even if critics of the deliveries like to put it that way. Because then the West would not only abandon Ukraine, but also demonstrate to Russia that a war is worthwhile in order to assert its interests.