contents
After more than 200 years, the freedom to form alliances is over: Finland and Sweden will submit their applications to join the western military alliance in the next few days. A turning point.
Just a few months ago there were neither plans nor intentions. “With me as the responsible minister, there will be no NATO accession,” said Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist in a widely acclaimed speech at the beginning of the year. That was before February 24, the day Russian troops invaded neighboring Ukraine.
“Trust was broken on that day,” said Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, who despite all the problems in recent years has always had a direct line to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The dialogue that was possible at any time beyond the 1,340 km long eastern border formed the basis of Finnish neutrality from the end of the Second World War.
Legend:
Sweden’s Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist during a visit to troops in Copenhagen in Sweden’s neighboring country Denmark. Denmark is a founding member of NATO.
imago images
On Thursday, Niinistö will make history by publicly announcing that he supports a bid to join NATO – in doing so kicking off the first of many dominoes that will make the two Nordic countries the newest members of the western military alliance in the coming weeks.
75 percent for NATO membership in Finland
On the same day, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin will give the go-ahead for an application to join NATO. This is followed by a vote in the Finnish parliament, where meanwhile almost all parties are in favor of NATO membership. According to the most recent surveys, almost 75 percent of the Finnish population are also in favor of the significant change in the security policy of the Nordic EU country.
This Finnish decision has a direct impact on its western neighbor Sweden, which declared its neutrality 214 years ago. Next Sunday, Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist’s party conference of the ruling Social Democrats will vote in favor of joining NATO. He himself would like to remain in office despite the other assurances he had made at the beginning of the year. And there is no longer any serious talk in Sweden of a long-promised referendum in the event of NATO membership.
Legend:
Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö visited Switzerland in 2013. At that time, Ueli Maurer was still head of the VBS and showed him the Swiss rescue troops in action.
key stone
In fact, both Finland and Sweden have been preparing for NATO politically and strategically for years. Already after the first Russian attack on Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the two Nordic neutral states agreed mutual assistance agreements with NATO. However, full accession was not politically feasible until Moscow invaded Ukraine.
New security policy map
With the final push into NATO, the security policy map of Northern Europe is changing fundamentally: the common border between Russia and NATO is now twice as long. In addition, Finland and Sweden must ask themselves whether they will tolerate NATO troops or even nuclear weapons on their territory in the future. The latter is still a no-go for many northerners who have now mutated into NATO supporters.
Finally, people in Helsinki and Stockholm are curious about the Russian reactions to the accession announcements. Although no direct military attack is expected, hybrid attacks on the IT systems of both countries as well as possible skirmishes along the long land and sea border are expected. In the past, Moscow had always warned against a Nordic farewell to neutrality.