“Welcome to Finland in NATO!” Tweeted President Emmanuel Macron a few moments after the official entry of the Nordic country into the Atlantic Alliance on Tuesday, April 4. A message accompanied by a sentence far from innocuous: “I hope that we will welcome our Swedish friends very soon as well”. Because if Finland has just completed the fastest accession process in history – the application having been submitted in May 2022 – its Scandinavian neighbor continues to be chomping at the bit. The accession of the two countries, which must benefit from a green light from all the members of NATO, was however to take place simultaneously, but Stockholm is still bearing the brunt of the blockage operated by Hungary and Turkey.
Welcome Finland to NATO!
I hope that we will soon welcome our Swedish friends as well.—Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) April 4, 2023
Hungary “wants to exist in Europe”
“There are many grievances to be settled before we can ratify” the entry of the Scandinavian country into the Alliance, said Zoltan Kovacs, spokesman for the Hungarian government, last Wednesday. While urging the Sweden to “change its tone” and end its policy of “bashing” Budapest. In the sights of Hungary: certain criticisms, coming from Sweden, targeting the authoritarian excesses of President Viktor Orban and the increasingly relative respect for the rule of law and democracy in this Central European country.
But according to General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, this maneuver is above all of an ideological nature. “Hungary wants to exist in Europe by adopting a posture closer to Russia because it is totally dependent on Moscow in terms of energy. It wants to mark its difference”, he assures. Budapest thus plays the role of “troublemaker” within Europe, according to political scientist Frédéric Charillon, expert in international relations. According to this specialist, “European and American pressure” could however be enough to convince Hungary to validate Sweden’s membership in the Atlantic Alliance. “Hungary remains European. That it is dependent on Russia on certain points is one thing, but it knows very well that its interests depend on the European Union”, adds General Trinquand.
Turkey calls on Sweden to extradite PKK sympathizers
With regard to Turkey, the reasons given for keeping Stockholm on the sidelines differ radically. Ankara, and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, criticize Sweden for a form of leniency towards some of the Kurdish refugees, whom it welcomes on its territory, and who display, for some, a closeness with the PKK, the Workers’ Party of Kurdistan. An organization, qualified as terrorist by Turkey but also by the European Union, but tolerated by several cities of the Old Continent because of the action carried out against the Islamic State by the Syrian fringe of the PKK. “Turkey is asking Stockholm for extraditions that the Swedish constitution does not authorize”, explains Patrice Moyeuvre, associate researcher at IRIS and specialist in Turkey.
Finally, Ankara has still not digested the burning of the Koran by far-right politician Rasmus Paludan. A gesture made in front of the Turkish embassy on January 21 and which sparked the ire of President Erdogan, determined to oppose the Swedish candidacy in NATO as long as the kingdom does not take measures to ban blasphemy.
A heavy electoral context
For the time being, it is difficult to hope for a volte-face from President Erdogan. “Turkey is in an electoral period (the presidential election will take place on May 14, Editor’s note). Erdogan needs the nationalists to win knowing that he is in a delicate position. It is therefore out of the question for him to give in on this history of Kurds”, assures Dominique Trinquand. Should we also see in it a desire not to offend Russia against whom Has Ankara always refused to apply Western sanctions? No, reply General Trinquand and Patrice Moyeuvre together. “If Erdogan did not want to offend Moscow, he would not have given in on Finland, which shares a common border with Russia,” said the first. “For the Russians, Turkey is clearly a member of NATO. It contributes to the common budget and to operations. Whether or not to integrate Sweden will not change their perception”, adds the second.
Clearly, if Sweden’s accession process could end up being unblocked on the Hungarian side, the Turkish veto seems more tenacious. And has almost no chance of being lifted before the next presidential election which will seal the fate of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for almost ten years.