Fires have been piling up in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine

April 22: Fire at Tver Rocket Research Institute, the big one Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant burns down in Kineshma northeast of Moscow, a locomotive in the Bryansk region derailed. Three days later: Two Russian oil depots in Bryansk go up in flamesat an airbase in Ussurisk, near Vladivostok smoke is sighted. April 27: three explosions on Russian territory near Ukraine.

In the past few days, reports like this have been coming from Russia almost every day. Military targets or transport routes are often affected. The Russian research portal «ISTories» also published a list of five attacks on Russian army recruitment offices since the beginning of March. Spring recruitment of new conscripts began in Russia on April 1.

Observers and the media quickly spoke of a pattern or even brought organized sabotage into play. There is no evidence for this. Nevertheless, an increase in such incidents on Russian territory since the beginning of the invasion is noteworthy. Especially since there are already examples of anti-Russian sabotage in the Ukraine war: at the beginning of the invasion, Belarusian railway workers, hackers and emigrated security forces largely paralyzed the Belarusian railway network. Belarus served as a staging area for Russian troops.

The Russian deployment could be slowed down

So far there are no signs of a similarly coordinated approach in Russia. It is also not clear whether the fires, explosions and damaged train tracks are caused by accidents, Ukrainian attacks or arson. At least the Russian authorities show alleged saboteurs: On Wednesday, the Russian domestic secret service FSB loudly arrested BBC Russia two “followers of Ukrainian Nazism” who allegedly wanted to damage railway lines in the Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine.

American military analyst dies in fire at two fuel depots in Bryansk on April 25 Rob Lee from a missile attack, possibly from Ukraine. A Tochka-U ballistic missile, such as that used by the Ukrainian military, would have the range to reach the fuel depots if launched near the Ukraine-Russia border. The thesis of a Ukrainian attack is strengthened by the fact that Ukraine on Thursday said it would attack military bases and camps on Russian territory.

An accident is almost impossible: It would be a very big coincidence if both depots had gone up in flames at the same time. The fire broke out in a civilian and a military fuel storage facility, which together have a capacity of 15,000 tons. A loss of these reserves could slow down the Russian invasion.

Damage to railway tracks in the Belgorod region could have a similar effect. On April 12, a railway bridge near the Ukrainian border was damaged and could not be used for a week. The bridge is on a transport route to the eastern Ukrainian city of Izyum, which was conquered by Russia. The Russian army relies primarily on rail to transport war equipment.

Major military infrastructure affected

However, the fires and damage are not limited to infrastructure that is directly important for the deployment of troops. Other important war targets have also gone up in flames in the past few days. This is shown by the fire on April 21 at the Institute for Rocket Research in Tver, 150 kilometers north-west of Moscow. Among other things, the Iskander missiles, which are also used against Ukraine, are to be developed here. Just one day later, a fire broke out in Korolyov, a town outside Moscow that is a center of Russian space travel and an important location for the defense industry. On April 25, smoke was sighted at an airbase near Vladivostok, in Russia’s Far East.

These targets are beyond the range of Ukrainian missiles. An official reason was given only for the fire at the Rocket Research Institute in Tver: According to the Russian news agency Tass A short circuit is said to have caused the fire. Such an accident cannot be ruled out. The infrastructure in Russia is dilapidated in many places, and safety precautions are often not observed. These were, according to environmental activists, for example the reasons for the diesel oil spill in Norilsk in northern Siberia in May 2020.

So far, there is no end to the series of fires in sight: on Wednesday night, an ammunition depot in the Belgorod region caught fire. The authorities also reported explosions in Kursk and Voronezh, and Russian air defense is said to have shot down Ukrainian drones there. All of these regions border Ukraine.

Assistance: Markus Ackeret, Moscow.