The unions would have preferred the facts to prove them wrong. The unemployment insurance reform, decided in 2019 and implemented – in several stages – until the end of 2021, is beginning to produce its effects. They are synonymous with amputated rights and lower benefits for some job seekers. This is shown in a note from Unédic, the joint association which manages the scheme, which the representatives of employees and employers took note of on December 16.
The study in question focuses on the impact of measures taken by decree under Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term. They resulted in tougher compensation conditions. First, the criteria for accessing the system have become more stringent, since individuals are required to have worked for six out of twenty-four months (instead of four out of twenty-eight, with the previous regulations) to receive a benefit, and unemployment insurance rights are only topped up once the number of hours is six times higher than before. Then, the allowance decreases from the seventh month for the unemployed under 57 who received remuneration equal to or greater than some 4,700 euros gross per month when they were active. Finally, the calculation method for determining the amounts paid has been modified, with the aim of encouraging employees to stay in a long-term job.
Unédic emphasizes that the results of its research must be interpreted with caution, in particular because the data used relates to a period up to the end of June. The offending provisions continue to gain momentum and it will be necessary “more hindsight” in order to appreciate the “behavioral changes”which are expected among workers, as a result of the new rules.
Once these precautions have been taken, the authors of the note explain that the number of“openings of rights” unemployment insurance fell sharply (–20%) between mid-2019 and mid-2022. Such a trend stems from the ” conjugation “ two factors: stricter conditions of access (six months of activity against four previously), which closed the doors of the system to thousands of unemployed, and a dynamic economic situation. The decrease is more marked among those under 25 (–26%), as well as among those “having lost a CDD” (– 30%) or an interim contract (– 37%) – in other words the young and precarious.
“Powerful crowding out effects”
In total, the number of beneficiaries fell by 275,000 between July 2021 and June 2022 (–7%). Here again, the change is clearer for those under 25 (–12%), but this may have a ” link “ with the plan launched in 2020 by the government to support hiring in this age group. If we reason in percentages, the proportion of“compensated recipients” among those registered with Pôle Emploi is falling from 40.4% in December 2021 to 36.6% in June 2022.
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