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The first face-to-face meeting between US President Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi is intended to counteract the deterioration in West-East relations. But both have reasons to play the strong man.
The backdrop will be tropical, the climate of conversation rather frosty: On the Indonesian island of Bali, the American head of state Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet for the first presidential tête-à-tête. On Tuesday and Wednesday they will then meet with top personnel from other major powers to discuss the world situation at the G20 summit.
The fact that Biden and Xi have arranged to meet one-on-one is a diplomatic ray of hope. Because the relationship between the two countries is worse than it has been for more than fifty years – and it threatens to deteriorate further.
The US-Chinese rivalry is about economic and military influence, but also about the struggle between democratic and authoritarian models of society.
Taiwan, Ukraine and the economic situation
Biden has said he wants to talk to Xi about Taiwan. China’s declared goal is to eventually transfer Taiwan into its own territory – if necessary by force. Biden, in turn, emphasizes that the United States would support Taiwan in the event of an attack. War is looming in East Asia.
The Ukraine war is also on the agenda. Xi is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most important ally, even if he has denied him some support.
After all, the meeting is about economic relations. The USA and China are closely linked economically, but are trying to make themselves more independent of the other for reasons of national security. The USA denies China access to its own high technology, while American companies in China are disadvantaged compared to Chinese ones.
Of course, no tangible results can be expected from all of this at the summit; a joint declaration is not even planned.
Conversation about “red lines”
Biden has announced that he is primarily concerned with talking to Xi about “red lines”. Positions should be clarified, misunderstandings cleared up. In short, we don’t want the bad US-China relations to get any worse.
But just reaching this goal is difficult. In October, Xi was elected sole ruler with an indefinite term. He is powerful like never before. But because China’s economy is in dire straits, Xi can draw attention to himself with foreign policy saber-rattling.
Biden, on the other hand, has had to deal with a strengthened opposition since the midterm elections. Many members of the Republican Party have criticized him for being too weak on China. He too has reasons to play the strong man.
More global problems
The G20 meeting in the middle of the week will then deal with the really big global problems: from food to inflation and energy to the climate. The US-Chinese rivalry has worsened the prospects for a solution to these issues as well. China, for example, has announced that it will suspend climate talks with the United States in response to the Taiwan dispute.
So problems all over the world depend on the relationship between Biden and Xi. Some might be delighted when the two of them shake hands in front of Bali’s tropical backdrop.