First relevant course target successfully completed

BTC rate: $30,790 (previous day: $31,300)

Short-term resistances/goals: $31,200/31,422, $32,205/32,383, $33,097, $33,714, $34,748, $35,650, $36,587, $37,452, $38,250, $39,322, $39,854, $40,019, $40,41,183, $40,8518

Short-term supports: $30,612, $30,210, $29,256, $28,751, $28,005, $27,696, $26,170, $25,342, $23,887, $21,892, $19,884

Hourly chart Price analysis based on the pair of values BTC/USD on Coinbase

Recap Bitcoin:

  • In the last few trading days, the crypto market joined the recovery on the classic financial market and was able to break out of its sideways range at the start of the week, as suspected in the last price analysis.
  • This seems to have been a first directional decision.
  • If the bulls manage to stabilize the BTC price above USD 30,612 in the coming days, a renewed increase towards the strong resistance at USD 32,205 is to be planned in the short term. So far, however, the Bitcoin buyer camp has not been able to stabilize above this resistance level by the hourly closing price.
  • That too Fear & Greed Index, which reflects the fear and greed of investors, has risen from a value of 10 to currently 17 in the last few days, can also be viewed positively. Investors now see an entry into Bitcoin as a little less dangerous.
  • The “Golden Pocket” at USD 26,170 is still to be regarded as the overriding key support. As long as Bitcoin is trading above this support at the daily closing price, a renewed price drop towards USD 20,000 is unlikely.
  • Also on the positive side are the reversals in several publicly traded U.S. crypto companies. The great bitcoin miner Marathon Digital Holdings recovered significantly from its low for the year in the last seven trading days and has meanwhile risen by more than 26 percent to the north. Also the largest publicly traded crypto exchange in the US, Coinbase, has gained a remarkable 100 percent in the last two weeks of trading. At least in the short term, this development indicates a possible end to the sell-off of the last trading months.

Renewed price weakness imaginable at any time

  • However, if the Nasdaq100 cannot continue its recovery rally, Bitcoin should not be able to avoid renewed price consolidation.
  • Because despite all the euphoria, the year 2022 has so far marked Bitcoin’s weakest start to the year since 2018. Nine red weekly candles in a row speak for themselves.
  • Bitcoin’s technical indicators have been pointing to a possible technical recovery movement for the past few weeks. However, the coming weeks of trading will show how sustainable this trend is.
  • The near-term bear market rally has been fueled at least in part by short liquidations and short covering in the futures market, so investors shouldn’t panic buying now.
  • Since the Nasdaq100 has now reached a strong resistance area and has been trending south in the last few hours of trading, renewed price falls are imaginable at any time.

Bullish Scenario (BTC):

  • In the last seven trading days, the buyer side initially managed to avert a renewed fall below USD 28,000. As a result, Bitcoin turned up significantly at the start of the week and broke out of its sideways phase to the upside.
  • BTC price surged to a fresh 14-day high at $32,383 but failed to sustain a break of the $32,205 resistance. The short-term recovery target was thus achieved.
  • Bitcoin is currently back in the USD 30,900 range and thus slightly below the last significant historical high of USD 31,422.
  • However, in order not to endanger the current trend movement, investors must stabilize the BTC price above USD 31,200 (supertrend), or at least avert a fall back into the range of the last trading weeks. The USD 30,612 mark in particular deserves increased attention here.
  • If Bitcoin can confirm the breakout from the range in the coming days, this would be another indication that higher prices in the USD 35,000 area are starting.
  • If Bitcoin promptly jumps over the resistance mark at USD 32,205 and forms a new historical high, a march through to USD 33,097 should be planned.
  • If the USD 33,097 is also broken through by the hourly closing price without any notable setbacks, further price targets at USD 33,714 and in particular USD 34,748 are activated. So the first important target in the form of the futures price gap is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) within reach. This also “CAPThe price gap mentioned is between USD 34,470 and USD 35,650. It is not uncommon for increased profit-taking to occur after a so-called “GAP-Close”.

The trend movement continues

  • If the BTC price continues to stabilize despite short-term profit realization, an increase to the upper edge of the green resistance zone at USD 36,587 is also conceivable. Not far above that is the medium-term price target of USD 37,452, which has been mentioned several times.
  • With this, Bitcoin would have also overcome the red overriding downtrend line, currently at around USD 36,000.
  • The trailing edge at USD 37,452 remains the make-or-break price level for the coming trading weeks.
  • Only if Bitcoin can also recapture the USD 37,500 will the bulls target the next higher price target at USD 39,322.
  • In addition to a strong horizontal resistance line, the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the overall downward movement also runs here.
  • Unchanged, the area between USD 39,322 and USD 40,019 represents the maximum bullish price target of the relief movement.

Bearish Scenario (BTC):

  • The bears are currently trying to initiate a countermovement and sell Bitcoin back below USD 31,200 towards the top of the range at USD 30,612.
  • If the BTC price can be pushed back below USD 30,612 at the end of the hour, this would be a first bearish indication.
  • Just below there is another support with the EMA200 (blue) at USD 30,200. Already here the bulls should try again to stabilize the BTC price.
  • If Bitcoin slips back below these supports in a timely manner, there is a false breakout on the upper side. A dip below the psychologically important $30,000 mark is likely to increase price weakness and push Bitcoin back towards $29,256.
  • A direct retest of USD 28,751 would also be conceivable. If BTC slips below this price level at the hourly closing price without any significant resistance, the next relevant supports at USD 28,005 (previous week low) and USD 27,696 move into the focus of investors.
  • At USD 27,696 there is a cross support from horizontal support and 61 Fibonacci retracement of the last price movement.

Further course submissions are likely

  • If Bitcoin also breaks through these price levels dynamically, a correction extension up to USD 26,170 can be expected.
  • This support level marks the last potential reversal level on the way to the year low at $25,342.
  • This increases the likelihood of a further trend towards the south, including the formation of new lows for the year.
  • If Bitcoin slips below the psychologically important USD 25,000 mark, the next price target activates on the downside at USD 23,887.
  • A direct fall back up to USD 21,892 cannot be ruled out either.
  • If the global financial markets also trend further south in the coming trading months, Bitcoin should also continue to fall to around USD 20,000.
  • This psychologically important price mark remains the maximum bearish price target for the coming months.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.94.

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