First Super Tuesday predictions
Trump is ahead everywhere so far
March 6, 2024, 3:06 a.m
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While the polling stations are still open in some states on Super Tuesday, the first forecasts are already being reported in others: Donald Trump has so far outperformed his rival Nikki Haley everywhere. For Joe Biden, the primaries are just a mood test anyway.
As expected, the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is expected to win in the primaries on Super Tuesday in the USA. After the first polling stations closed on the East Coast, data provider Edison Research quickly awarded the states of Virginia and North Carolina to the ex-president instead of his remaining intra-party rival Nikki Haley. According to US television forecasts, it is also ahead in Maine, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama and populous Texas. As expected, incumbent Joe Biden is in the lead among the Democrats in all states for which there are current forecasts.
Further results are expected throughout the night, with the last polls in Alaska scheduled to close at 6 a.m. ET. The final results from California will probably not be available for days. On Super Tuesday, primaries will take place in 15 of the 50 states. The respective parties choose their candidates for the US presidential election in November. It is almost certain that Trump will ultimately prevail among the Republicans and Biden among the Democrats. But experts see the vote as an important test of sentiment for both men in terms of their support among key demographic groups. The respective candidates will be formally nominated at party conferences in the summer.
Trump could lose votes due to court rulings
Initial post-election surveys showed that for many Republicans, Trump’s promise to secure the borders plays a central role. The ex-president has announced that he will initiate a major program to expel foreigners without a residence permit. But it also became clear what danger his legal proceedings could pose: According to Edison, 40 percent of participants in the Republican primary in Virginia are of the opinion that Trump would no longer be suitable for office if he were found guilty. In North Carolina it was 32 percent and in California it was 23 percent. Trump faces several lawsuits. In all cases, he rejected the allegations and spoke of politically motivated proceedings.
The early surveys also raise concerns for Biden. In California – with almost 40 million inhabitants, about half the size of Germany – Trump also prevailed over Haley among voters who were classified as “nonwhite”. Of these, most were Hispanics, the largest minority in the United States. According to Edison, Trump was ahead with 72 percent. Hispanics and other non-white voters have traditionally formed a hard core of Democratic supporters. According to other surveys, Trump has recently made up ground here, especially among workers. In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump among Hispanics by about 20 percentage points.
In the election marathon from Maine to Alaska, Trump cannot mathematically collect enough delegate votes to be safely chosen as the candidate. However, a stunning victory would make it difficult for Haley to remain in the race. If, on the other hand, the former governor attracts many votes from moderates, that could mean trouble for Trump: a very close result is expected in the November election. Biden, in turn, is facing criticism that he sided too much with Israel in the Gaza war. Some US voters are dissatisfied with both candidates, simply because of their age: Trump is 77 years old, Biden is 81.