A year after the start of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine, several scenarios on the future of this war are possible. Will we attend a “long-lasting conflict”a forced compromise or a “Russian collapse that would lead to a general rout”? Will the Western armor promised to the Ukrainian army allow “a new major counter-offensive” or are we moving towards “a war of position with permanent exchanges of artillery” ? The world asked five experts how they envisaged the aftermath of the conflict.
“The hypothesis of a conflict where neither is able to prevail is the most likely” –Camille Grand
Researcher and Head of Defense Studies at the European Council on International Relations and former Deputy Secretary General of NATO
“There is a lot of uncertainty about the capabilities of both sides, but three scenarios seem possible from a military perspective. That of a conflict that lasts, where no one is able to win, seems to me the most likely. The confrontation could resemble the one that took place in the Donbass between 2015 and 2022, with more intensity. Both parties no doubt imagine that this situation is to their advantage. In Moscow, we are counting on numerical and material superiority, at least in volume, while in Kiev, we are betting on the weariness of a Russian population whose territory is not threatened and on the aid of Westerners which continues to gain strength.
Second hypothesis: the Ukrainians, who do not communicate their losses, are more exhausted than one would think and will end up being forced to accept a compromise. This scenario strikes me as politically unacceptable and quite improbable, given their determination and Western support, which remains very firm. Ukraine’s allies have been saying for months that a Russian victory is out of the question. They are therefore obliged to provide him with at least the means to hold on, if only to remain credible in the eyes of Moscow.
Last hypothesis: like what happened in Karkhiv, Izium or Kherson in the fall, the Ukrainian forces, which have better morale, better training, better supervision, better intelligence, Better quality equipment – even if the quantity is not yet there – could cause a new Russian collapse at one point or another on the front, which would lead to a general rout and force Moscow to seek a way out of the conflict. Militarily, it is not at all excluded, firstly because the Ukrainians have already broken through the front at least three times, then because we can have doubts about the capacities and the morale of the Russians to resist a offensive if the Ukrainians manage to mount it. »
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