All parties standing for election in Israel this Tuesday are primarily trying to defeat one opponent: the widespread electoral fatigue. For the fifth time since April 2019, the Israelis are called to the polls; no government lasted more than a year. This time, too, the election campaign was shaped less by issues than by people. The most important question: Will former Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu succeed in returning to power? Surveys predict a tight race, the first forecasts will be available in the evening. The most important questions and answers on the election of the 25th Knesset.
Why is there an election again?
At the end of June, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister and “alternating Prime Minister” Jair Lapid announced that they were seeking a dissolution of the Knesset. Bennett resigned and under the coalition agreement, Lapid became interim leader on July 1. The government in office since June 2021 was in crisis after several MPs left the eight-party coalition. This included left and right parties and, for the first time in Israel’s history, an Islamic party. The coalition, which had largely come about through Lapid’s negotiating skills, called itself the “government of change”. Basically, their greatest common denominator was the desire to oust Benjamin Netanyahu, who had ruled since 2009. The coalition finally collapsed under the considerable internal tensions.
Who chooses whom and how?
Israel has around 9.5 million inhabitants, just over 6.2 million of them who are older than 18 years are allowed to vote. About 17 percent of eligible voters are Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, and about 11 percent self-identify as ultra-Orthodox Jews. Above all, these two population groups with their high birth rate are also responsible for the fact that the electorate is very young: 44 percent of those eligible to vote are younger than 40 years. The voters choose the 120 members of the Knesset in a list election. 40 parties are competing this year, but only about a dozen are credited with having a serious chance of clearing the 3.25 percent hurdle. The first forecasts will be published after the polling stations close at 9 p.m. German time. However, due to the manual counting of votes and the complicated system of offsetting surplus votes, it may take until Wednesday or even Thursday before the final result is available.
Is Netanyahu Coming Back?
Many in Israel believe the main reason Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking a comeback is to get rid of the corruption trial against him. Still, the odds that the opposition leader and Likud chairman will return to the post, which he has held longer than anyone before him, are not bad. Most recently, polls predicted 60 Knesset seats for Netanyahu and his right-wing partners – he needs 61 for a majority. Just a few tens of thousands of votes can make the difference. Much, therefore, depends on how high the turnout will be among different constituencies, such as among the Palestinian citizens of Israel. Like all parties, the Likud made great efforts to motivate sympathizers to vote. The Likud will almost certainly become the strongest party again. On the other hand, should the Likud fall to 30 seats or fewer, that would be a disappointment – and Netanyahu’s hitherto unchallenged position in his party could be damaged.
What about Jair Lapid?
Jair Lapid is the leader of the centre-left camp, which is about as strong as Netanyahu’s camp. When the course was set for the new election, he declared himself determined to prevent the return of Netanyahu in association with even more right-wing partners – he spoke somberly of “dark forces” that threatened to tear Israel apart. In the election campaign, however, Lapid primarily focused on scoring points in the new role of head of government. He has had some political successes – the brief, victorious standoff for Israel in the Gaza Strip in August or the recently concluded sea border agreement with Lebanon. Lapid’s centrist party “Yesh Atid – There is a future” is considered to be well organized, it is likely to become the second strongest force in parliament and receive up to 30 mandates. Lapid’s ultimate goal is to prevent Netanyahu from gaining a majority. Even if he were unable to secure a majority of his own, he would remain in office as an executive until another election.
What other parties play a role?
Israel’s party landscape is traditionally fragmented and characterized by splits, new foundations, renaming and alliances. In addition to Likud and Yesh Atid, two names in particular should be remembered. First, that of Defense Secretary Benny Gantz’s center-right National Unity Party. On the other hand, that of the party of religious right-wing Zionists and settlers, “Religious Zionism”. Both are competing to be the third strongest force. While Gantz belongs to the anti-Netanyahu camp (and has repeatedly expressed ambitions for the post of prime minister himself), the religious Zionists are clearly on Netanyahu’s side. They could be the surprise winner, they were recently predicted 13 or more mandates – more than twice as many as currently. A Netanyahu government headed by Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a popular provocateur and political arsonist from the ranks of “Religious Zionism”, is being described by some on the left in Israel as the “end of the world”. Such a government would probably pursue an even more uncompromising policy than previous governments, especially with regard to relations with the Palestinians.