France’s macroeconomic forecasts are maintained for the end of 2023, the government announced on Tuesday after the presentation to the Council of Ministers of the “end of management finance bill” for this year.
This first PLFFG is a new category of law which replaces the traditional amending finance bills and does not contain any new tax measures, only credit adjustments.
Government spokesperson Olivier Vran confirmed that the public deficit would be 4.9% of GDP in 2023, compared to 5% planned in the initial finance bill (PLF), but as planned in the framework of the 2024 PLF. .
Likewise, he confirmed that the 2023 public debt would be equivalent to 109.7% of GDP (gross domestic product) after 111.8% in 2022.
According to the office of the Minister of Public Accounts Thomas Cazenave, however, a credit of an additional 3.8 billion euros will be opened at the end of the year to finance a debt burden higher than expected due to inflation and the rise interest rates.
This sum is offset by the cancellation in September, by decree, of 5 billion euros in credits, coming in particular from requests for aid from businesses facing the rise in energy costs, which were lower than anticipated.
Mr. Cazenave’s office also announced that at the end of the year there would be 5.2 billion additional credit openings, largely linked to Ukraine, and an equivalent cancellation of 5.2 billion other credits. .
The High Council of Public Finances observed that the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio compared to 2022 benefited from a significant increase in GDP linked to inflation.
Erosion
According to him, France will continue to see its position, in terms of debt, erode within the euro zone. It must return to debt levels (it) guaranteeing that it has sufficient room for maneuver to be able to face the future of macroeconomic or financial shocks and the public investment needs required in particular by the ecological transition. , he estimated.
The new 5.2 billion credits consist in particular of 2.1 billion euros for the Minister of Arms, in order to finance expenses relating to the war in Ukraine. An additional 300 million euros will be allocated to the Ministry of the Interior, largely for the reception of Ukrainian refugees.
Hit by the consequences of the war in Ukraine and by an epidemic of avian flu at the start of the year, Agriculture will benefit from an additional 800 million.
The credits of the Minister of Solidarity are increased by 400 million euros due to an increase in the disabled adult allowance.
Finally, a labor market, in better shape than expected in overseas territories, has mechanically increased the reductions in specific employer contributions dedicated to it: 400 million euros of new credits will be devoted to them.
The cancellations of unused credits are linked to risks which have not fully materialized in 2023.
For example, 500 million euros not spent by the Minister of the Economy, thanks to lower losses than expected on the repayments of loans guaranteed by the State (PGE), granted to companies to deal with the Covid crisis. Expenditure by the Ministry of Labor to support employment will also be lower than expected, by 900 million euros.
Measures planned to deal with the rise in energy prices, again, have not been used, amounting to 1.1 billion euros: this concerns in particular the worker fuel allowance or various checks to support households in their energy consumption, particularly wood. The rest of the cancellations will be made from credits set aside by the various ministries.
The growth forecast of 1% over the year is confirmed. On Tuesday, INSEE announced that it had grown by 0.1% in the third quarter after 0.6% in the second.