Forecast for new parliament
Portugal moves far to the right in the election
March 10, 2024, 10:01 p.m
Listen to article
This audio version was artificially generated. More info | Send feedback
After the early parliamentary elections, projections point to a sharp shift to the right in Portugal: the center-right AD alliance will win the most votes, while the ruling Socialist Party will slip into second place. This means that the right-wing extremist Chega could become the kingmaker.
The opposition Democratic Alliance (AD) is heading for victory in Portugal’s parliamentary elections. The center-right alliance won the most votes in the vote, according to a post-election survey published by broadcaster RTP. The right-wing extremist Chega party, which made significant gains in the election, could take on the kingmaker role in the new parliament.
The conservative AD led by top candidate Luís Montenegro could get up to 33 percent of the vote. The Socialist Party (PS) of Pedro Nuno Santos, which has been in power for eight years, would therefore end up in second place with up to 29 percent. The right-wing populist Chega (“It’s enough”) improved from a good 7 percent in the last election at the beginning of 2022 to now up to 17 percent.
Other Portuguese media such as the newspaper “Público” published similar figures to RTP in the evening, shortly after the last polling stations in the Azores closed at 9 p.m. our time. If the counting of votes confirms these results, forming a government will be difficult. In the last election in January 2022, the PS won with 41 percent and won 120 of the 230 seats in the Lisbon “Assembleia da República”. This gave the party an absolute majority.
The real estate crisis, low wages, poor health care and corruption, which many voters see as typical of the major parties, played a role in the election campaign. The election was brought forward by two years in November against the background of corruption investigations and the subsequent resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa.
Forming a government will probably be difficult
A “grand coalition” between PS and AD is considered impossible. Montenegro will therefore probably have to rely on agreements with smaller parties. The 51-year-old trained lawyer will rely primarily on the Liberal Initiative (IL), which can expect up to seven percent. However, both parties are far from having a majority capable of governing.
In view of the looming difficulties in forming a government, observers predicted a new election in the summer before the vote. The main reason: Montenegro does not want to negotiate with the Chega party of former TV sports commentator André Ventura, who is becoming the unpopular “kingmaker”. In Portugal – similar to the AfD in Germany – there is still a so-called firewall to the right.
At home and abroad, the Socialists’ earlier success was hailed as the “Portuguese miracle.” After the euro debt crisis, Costa led the former EU problem child very solidly for years. Spending discipline but also social responsibility characterized his work. Over the years, the economy has almost always grown above the EU average, and unemployment and debt have been steadily reduced. Several corruption scandals, including at the state airline TAP, put an end to the success story. At its peak, Costa faced allegations of corruption in lithium and hydrogen projects in November. According to the current status of the investigation, the 62-year-old was not personally guilty of anything.