HASfter a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter, France returned to growth from April to June, recording a more dynamic rebound than expected in its GDP, which rose by 0.5% in this second quarter, according to data published Friday by INSEE. In their latest forecasts, the National Institute of Statistics and the Banque de France respectively forecast growth of 0.25% and 0.2% between April and June. The good performance of the French economy in the second quarter can be explained both by a clearly positive contribution of foreign trade to growth and a less marked drop in household consumption than in the first quarter.
According to this first estimate of the national accounts, which will have to be confirmed at the end of August by INSEE, imports fell by 0.6% in the second quarter, while exports jumped by 0.8%. The latter were “driven in particular by transport services (+ 6.3% after + 5.0% in the first quarter) and spending by foreign travelers in France (+ 8.6% after + 5.0%)” , details INSEE. “Conversely, exports of goods fell back (-0.6% after +1.4%), particularly in transport equipment and agri-food,” the institute further explains.
Conflicting indicators at the level of consumption
As for consumption, the traditional driver of the French economy, it remains negative for purchases of goods (-1.3%), but purchases of services are on the rise again (+1.5%). Two contradictory trends leading to an overall decline of 0.2% in household consumption in the second quarter. With the figures published on Friday, INSEE assesses the growth overhang of the French economy for the year 2022 at 2.5%. the Banque de France or the IMF (+2.3%).
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The INSEE data are published the day after the publication of the figures for American growth in the second quarter (-0.9% at an annualized rate after -1.6% in the 1er quarter), which technically sent the country into recession. In Europe, growth estimates for the euro zone and several large countries of the Old Continent are also due to be released on Friday morning.