“France is afraid”, was throwing in February 1976 Roger Gicquel at the opening of the TF1 television news. The France of 2022, on the other hand, tends to love being scared. Evidenced by the debate on the potential shortage of electricity this winter.
All it took was a clumsy ministerial communication, an inopportune speech by Enedis, the manager of the electricity distribution network, marked bad faith and unhealthy opportunism on the part of the opposition and finally a country on edge so that a simple administrative device intended to anticipate possible cuts as short as planned turns into a scenario worthy ofArmageddon. While we are not yet in mid-December, France is already on the verge of tripping, not for lack of electricity, but for lack of common sense and rationality.
As early as spring, the risk of tension on the electricity network this winter was known. A combination of short-term hazards and a lack of energy vision have weakened our electricity production, more than two-thirds of which are of nuclear origin. Of the 56 reactors available, sixteen are still shut down. Some are subject to maintenance that has been delayed due to the confinements due to the pandemic crisis, others have corrosion problems that require long repairs.
The situation is uncomfortable, but not insurmountable. First, the situation is improving: the number of shutdown reactors has been halved since September. Then, France imports electricity produced by its neighbours. That is very expensive because the war in Ukraine caused energy prices to explode, but the mechanism of a European market so often decried has the merit of existing, whatever its critics think.
Distinguish the probable from the possible
For the rest, our supply must rely on alternative energies, the vagaries of the weather and the ability of the French to control their consumption. Regarding the former, under-investment is paid for in cash. The fluctuation of temperatures and the adhesion of the French to energy sobriety are more uncertain and lead the electricity transmission network (RTE) to be considered in the event of peak consumption of load shedding operations, i.e. temporary and controlled cuts.
Reason for hope in this ocean of bad news: the French have understood the stakes. In November they have reduced their electricity consumption by 10%.
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