The international environment is “difficult”, but the French economy will resist, the minister wanted to believe on Monday.
For 2023, Bercy is more optimistic than the Banque de France or the ECB. Asked about LCI, this Monday morning, the Minister of Economy and Finance reaffirmed that the tricolor fundamentals were solid, making it possible to avoid a recession next year. “We will do at least 2.5% growthin 2022, praised Bruno Le Maire, underlining the good dynamics of consumption and investment, while conceding that the international environment was “hard“.
“There is a real risk of recession in Germany, the situation is difficult in the United States and the Chinese market is increasingly difficult because the Covid epidemic continues: all this will have an impact in 2023 on France“, explained the minister. However, growth will bepositive“, he assured, without advancing a figure for all that.
Recession announced in Germany
These optimistic declarations take place whereas the German institute IFO has just announced that the country was moving towardsa winter recession», energy crisis obliges. Other voices are also more cautious about the near future of European economies: the ECB thus expects a “recessionnext year, if the Kremlin decides to cut European gas supplies. The Banque de France does not rule out a recession either, admittedly “limited“, next year.
For the time being, the various projections for 2022 remain just as measured: the Banque de France is counting on a slowdown in growth in the third quarter, after a summer “more dynamic than expected“. Same observation for INSEE, which recently specified that manufacturing production should be less dynamic in the months to come, “in a context of strong constraints on supply and stocks of finished products at a high level“. For the euro zone, the ECB expects average growth of 3.1% this year, then 0.9% next year, with strong uncertainties clouding the horizon.
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