Unlike Germany, where growth fell into negative territory (−0.1% in the third quarter), the French economy kept its head above water between July and September: gross domestic product (GDP) shows a modest but positive increase of 0.1% over this period, compared to the second quarter, in line with forecasts, according to the first estimate published on Tuesday October 31 by INSEE.
And this, in a context of a clear slowdown in inflation: the consumer price index stood at 4% year-on-year in October, compared to 4.9% in September, according to provisional results published on Tuesday . “We are emerging from the inflationary crisis”, reacted the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, by welcoming “a French economy that is holding together”.
Certainly, growth in the third quarter appears much less favorable than the +0.6% – the figure has been revised upwards by 0.1 point compared to previous publications – recorded in the second quarter, thanks to an unprecedented performance in trade. outside.
“A fading business climate”
But, underlines Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation department at INSEE, “this is not a change in trend: it is rather the second quarter which was above forecasts”. In its projections published on October 12, INSEE estimated the growth of the French economy over the whole of 2023 at 0.9%, a figure which remains current. “The October economic surveys indicate a weakening business climate, which does not necessarily bode well for great dynamism in the fourth quarter”observes Mr. Pouget.
Over the past three months, growth was driven by household consumption, up 0.7% after a flat second quarter (0.0%). Above all, thanks to the slowdown in consumer prices, food purchases are on the rise again after eight quarters of decline (+0.7%) in a row. Good news, according to Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions: “We have been observing a continuous decline in consumption for a year and a half, which is unprecedented and which is accompanied by a very high savings rate, of 18.7% of income, while the government purchase held up better than we feared. If consumption does not pick up, we could fall into a recession scenario. »
The “miracle” of American growth, which reached 4.9% in the third quarter, according to figures published on October 26, is largely due to the spending of Americans, who only save around 3% of their income. . “Household consumption in France is at its 2019 level, while in the United States it is already ten points higher,” Mr. Plane argues.
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