EXCLUSIVE MAINTENANCE – In his new macroeconomic forecasts, the Governor of the Banque de France is counting on very high inflation at 5.6% in 2022, which would drop to 3.4% in 2023 then to 1.9% in 2024.
LE FIGARO. – For 2022, growth is revised downwards, but does not collapse. We are even far from the recession. How do you explain it?
Francois VILLEROY DE GALHAU. – The shock of the Russian war in Ukraine should cost us more than two points of growth over the period 2022-2024, compared to our expectations at the start of the year. But the activity seems resilient for two reasons. On the one hand, household consumption and corporate investment are resisting. On the other hand, companies weathered the coronavirus crisis well, when many were predicting a wall of bankruptcies. In an exceptional situation, theno matter whatwas effective. Today, we are seeing a sustained recovery in services, while industry is suffering from supply difficulties. Recruitment difficulties remain very high, and low unemployment should increase only slightly, from 7.4% today to 7.9% in 2024…
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