The director general of Ifop Frédéric Dabi analyzes for Paris Match the first round of the legislative elections.
Paris Match. Even if they were in line with the last Ifop poll, did the results of this first round surprise you?
Frederic Dabi. This is indeed both consistent with the last poll we conducted on Friday and surprising in the political context of the Fifth Republic. The pattern observed in previous legislative elections since the establishment of the five-year term in 2000 has been undermined. In previous elections, we observed a ripple effect for the presidential party, regardless of the president. This Sunday, Together is less than 6 points than LREM in 2017 and even less than Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the presidential election. We feel that the French want to rebalance the powers. 55% of French people in our Voting Day poll expressed the fact that they wanted cohabitation for Emmanuel Macron against 44% in 2017.
Do the Nupes and the presidential majority have vote reserves?
Together has a priori a larger reserve of votes and will activate an “Everything but Mélenchon”, trying to seduce the voices which have gone in particular to LR candidates in the first round. But it is true that the Nupes also has a reserve of votes with the abstainers. Abstention is so strong that the death knell sounds for everyone. All segments of the population are affected. Even if the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon abstained more than the national average (54% against 52%), the central political position of the presidential majority remains an advantage in a two-round majority ballot.
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In your Voting Day survey, health remains the top priority. It was not discussed this Sunday evening on television sets …
However, at the end of the campaign, he won (especially after the front page of Paris Match, Editor’s note). The critical situation of the hospital is a concern of the French. And this does not only date from the Covid, it was already observed before. Today, 36% of French people give up healthcare for financial reasons and the emergency strike announced this summer in certain hospitals is at the center of discussions between the French.
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What to expect from the in-between tower?
With the exception of 2007 when the social VAT had cost Nicolas Sarkozy’s party seats, the second round of legislative elections traditionally validates the first. That may not be the case this time around. A second election begins. For Ensemble, the speech will be simple. It will be hammered that the Republic is in danger and that Nupes with Jean-Luc Mélenchon will ruin France. For the Nupes, it is the hope of a dynamic, of a historic victory within reach.
Read also: Clémentine Autain and Rachida Dati: when the evening of the legislative elections turns into boxing
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Marine Le Pen at more than 50%… but not yet re-elected
Legislative: What results for the 15 ministers?